Of course, we obviously have plenty of water. Enough to support cooling an AI data center bigger than Manhattan. No explanation why they didn't put it in West Virginia, which would probably love the (purported) jobs, and certainly has way more water.
One of my questions is how should the West react to an oncoming decade of “Run your electric grid as if you were eastern states, with many generators, a dense demand network, and lots of water.”
My response as a Westerner would be: "We're all in. As long as you arrange for the 'lots of water' part to be the first step in the implementation. The sooner the better!"
I really think folks from east of the Mississippi just can't wrap their heads around "dry" -- that's dry as in zero rain (or snow or sleet or hail) for 6-8 months out of the year. They can see the deserts, but the reality of living here, and what it means beyond the plant life, seems to be beyond them.
I don’t think anyone showing up to a Patriot Prayer rally is going to be chased away for being LDS or ELS or whatever.
Chased away? Perhaps not. But I'm not seeing any chance of an Evangelical effort to support the Mormons. Who are both not even Christians and heretics. (Mutually exclusive as those logically are.)
On the other hand, it doesn't seem a stretch to imagine them making a big effort in support of fundamentalists (even if not quite Evangelicals) in, say, Idaho or Wyoming. Utah and the LDS are very much a special case. .
Not, as I’ve said, that I think a shooting war is a likely result. As someone else pointed out, this is not 1861, states don’t raise militias, and there’s a very large standing military.
A shooting war, with opposing armies? No, I'd agree that's very unlikely. (Although I do note that every state has a National Guard. Not quite like the old state militias. But not totally different.)
But extensive guerrilla warefare and terrorism, especially within the new areas? Much more likely. Especially with support from other fragments. I could especially see some efforts directed at the perceived oppression of their co-religionists.
The vast administrative state and everyone who sucks from that teat (eg, K Street lobbyists). Wall Street.
The lobbiests, for sure. Although given the prominence of lobbyists at the state level,** I'm not sure the lobbying companies, as opposed to individual lobbyists, would lose that much.
I'd expect that the administrative state would split along with the geography. Unless the parts decide, ala the EU, that it makes sense to do some things together, they'd each need to have a lot of the pieces. Not equal pieces -- the West would likely want something like BLM (Bureau of Land Management), while New England or the reborn Confederacy would not. But mostly we'd see an enormous amount of shuffling, and later horse trading for bits of particular agencies.
As for Wall Street, I'd expect New England would keep it going. Maybe even getting business from elsewhere, just as London does. There would be stock exchanges in other regions (last I looked, San Francisco still had their stock exchange building), just smaller than Wall Street. The biggest impact would be programmed trading would be less prominent.
Exercise for the student: can the US dollar lose its reserve currency status, and how long would that take?
First: obviously yes. There have been other bases for reserves, including things like gold. The dollar merely happens to have been the basis since WW II -- i.e. all of our lifetimes. That has something to do with the United States being the only major industrial nation with industry not ravaged by the war, and something to do with the US having a series of administrations right after the war which saw world trade and a world economy as being in the national interest.
How long would it take to lose it? It could be pretty gradual, with countries here and there shifting to a mix of reserves, and them the dollar drifting from still first among equals to being just another option.
But at the moment, it seems that the major impediment is simply that it takes time and care to diversify out of dollars without crashing the value of the dollars you still hold. A small economy doesn't have to worry too much about that. But big economies will want to thread the needle between on one hand setting off a dollar crash and on the other hand not moving fast enough, so that when someone else sets off the crash, they're left holding the bag.
Trump's Excellent Iranian Adventure has kick the process into high gear, with oil suddenly being traded internationally in yuan as well as in dollars. Compound that with the dollar's status being based on the "full faith and credit" of the United States combined with Trump's massive bad faith on anything and everything. I'd say it's an even money bet at the moment whether that reserve status lasts to 2028.
Sometime in the next 25 years or so, there will be an opportunity for the western states . . . to go their own way.
I wonder if you could expand on this a little. Maybe even work up a post.
I'd be interested in where the time frame comes from. Also, if you have any thoughts on what our new nation's government might look. And what intergovernmental relations with the rest of the old country might look like.
I'm probably overthinking this. But I could see handing other parties serious defeats, even if it requires voting for Reform, in order to turf out the old guard in those parties.
Musk and others plan to put AI data centers in space.
Thus demonstrating their ignorance of thermodynamics. An AI data center (any data center actually) generates a lot of heat. On the ground, you either conduct that heat to air or water and then move the hot air or hot water out and pump in cold. You've essentially got the whole planet's atmosphere and oceans as a heat sink.
In space, the only way to get rid of waste heat is radiation. Which just isn't as efficient. To the point that it simply isn't feasible.
They may figure that their potential investors are utterly ignorant as well. But as an investment, snake oil is probably a better option.
An LA-class sub is 360 ft long (109 meter), has a 33-foot beam (10.05 meters), and I believe is the smallest of our active nuclear submarines. I, for one, do not want to be responsible for even trying to balance that over rails spaced 4′ 8.5″ (1.43 m) apart, and then moving it.
Tippecanoe and Trumpkins too?
First thing that popped into my head. Which probably says something unfortunate about what else might be in there....
Wonder what Trump’s Dept of Energy will order done?
Proclaim, loudly, that the rolling blackouts aren't happening. Combined with claiming that the non-existent blackouts are the fault of California (and maybe blue areas of other states).
Actual actions? Order generators East of the Mississippi to fire up and generate more power. Yes, we all know that they are in the Eastern Interconnect Grid. But consider that, during the fires in Southern California, when there were water shortages to fight them, Trump ordered releases from reservoirs in the Central Valley. Which send water in the opposite direction. In short, do something useless.
Does he see Reconstruction as a time of violence? Or, more accurately, the period after it was terminated and the southern whites were empowered to institute Jim Crow and all the trimmings? Because the latter would be a pretty clear case if the reactionary right indulging in violence.
I'm fine with medical personnel using AI to maybe catch a possible diagnosis that they missed. I am definitely not fine with AI diagnosis without serious human review.
At this point, AI (which mostly is LLM rather than true AI) is a fad which simply isn't ready for prime time. Unfortunately, I expect it to require a couple of really ugly disasters to inject some reality into the discussion.
lj, I'm thinking that perhaps women find it easier to get people to open up and talk to them. In short, to gather information to analyze and to report on.
In as patriarchal a society as China, they may be seen as less threatening. That would apply across the economy and across society, not just when it comes to understanding social and cultural changes.
I note that The Economist's China staff (those that aren't ex-pat Brits) all seem to be women as well. Including those from Taipei and Singapore. Hmmm....
The good news, the Trump-defaced passports will only be available (as an option) to those applying in person in DC. Normal people will just get the regular, boring old version. Wonder how many MAGAts will make the trek to DC to get their cult version.
There's also the detail (for those who celebrate) that to be 86ed isn't something fatal. As I understand it, it means getting tossed out of the bar/pub for drunk and disorderly type behaviour.
And so a reasonable person could take it as simply a call to impeach and remove Trump. Which he, admittedly, might consider a fate worse than death. But legally? Definitely on the utter nonsense side of dubious.
Interesting, in light of our discussion earlier about which autocracies might be a model for Iran. The generals (apparently) taking the reins in the negotiations, and even pushing the mullahs to the side, makes our selection of Pakistan look like we might actually know what we're talking about. (It's that or the blind pig....)
I don’t think the current GOP leadership could stay in power if it does break, so I expect this will continue at least until the midterms, after which who knows what happens.
Agreed. There's simply no way the Republicans currently in Congress can break with Trump without sacrificing their political careers. They'd be primaried, probably successfully, in a heartbeat. And they know it.
After an electoral bloodbath in November (assuming that, as now seems likely, that occurs), their calculations may change. They might figure that distance would help going forward. At least a little distance. Alternatively, they might decide to double down. That would be counterproductive, but nonetheless is what I expect.
Iran can probably cross some of those options off quickly.
North Korea -- Even with a second Khamenei in charge, Iran seems unlikely to embrace the hereditary royalty model. Memories of the Shahs are still too fresh
Cuba-- one look at their economy makes that unattractive.
Turkey -- Still way too secular, and still to close to democratic, to appeal to the mullahs.
Russia -- May be an ally. But Iran has far too close a look at how a kleptocracy damages a country to want any part of it. Not to mention that the Iranian people, culturally, are not as fatalistically submissive as the Russians seem to be. Only look at the protests this past few months. Hard to imagine anything remotely like that in Russia.
That leaves Pakistan and China. Of those, Pakistan seems a closer fit, given the power of the military in each. The CCP's absolute control over the PLA is not going to happen with the Revolutionary Guard generals. As attractive as China's use of military force to put down popular protest may be to the mullahs, I expect that they would at most cherry pick that into a different system. But there's no religious authority in Pakistan equivalent to the mullahs, so not a great fit either.
One other option which should probably be mentioned is the world's other Islamic theocracy: Saudi Arabia. Naturally, Iran would never, ever, admit to copying anything from the Saudis. But more than that, there's no figurehead equivelent to the House of Saud. (Nor likely to be. See the remarks about North Korea.)
So, overall I would expect Iran to come up with a model all its own. Picking bits and pieces from other authoritarians, and inventing some all their own. But nothing even close to those other models.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Open Thread time”
The sooner the AI bubble bursts, the better. Especially if it happens before these huge data centers start construction.
"
Of course, we obviously have plenty of water. Enough to support cooling an AI data center bigger than Manhattan. No explanation why they didn't put it in West Virginia, which would probably love the (purported) jobs, and certainly has way more water.
"
My response as a Westerner would be: "We're all in. As long as you arrange for the 'lots of water' part to be the first step in the implementation. The sooner the better!"
I really think folks from east of the Mississippi just can't wrap their heads around "dry" -- that's dry as in zero rain (or snow or sleet or hail) for 6-8 months out of the year. They can see the deserts, but the reality of living here, and what it means beyond the plant life, seems to be beyond them.
"
Texas?
Various other states aren't particularly loved. But Texas is the one that works the hardest by far at being actively obnoxious to the rest of us.
"
Chased away? Perhaps not. But I'm not seeing any chance of an Evangelical effort to support the Mormons. Who are both not even Christians and heretics. (Mutually exclusive as those logically are.)
On the other hand, it doesn't seem a stretch to imagine them making a big effort in support of fundamentalists (even if not quite Evangelicals) in, say, Idaho or Wyoming. Utah and the LDS are very much a special case. .
"
A shooting war, with opposing armies? No, I'd agree that's very unlikely. (Although I do note that every state has a National Guard. Not quite like the old state militias. But not totally different.)
But extensive guerrilla warefare and terrorism, especially within the new areas? Much more likely. Especially with support from other fragments. I could especially see some efforts directed at the perceived oppression of their co-religionists.
"
The lobbiests, for sure. Although given the prominence of lobbyists at the state level,** I'm not sure the lobbying companies, as opposed to individual lobbyists, would lose that much.
I'd expect that the administrative state would split along with the geography. Unless the parts decide, ala the EU, that it makes sense to do some things together, they'd each need to have a lot of the pieces. Not equal pieces -- the West would likely want something like BLM (Bureau of Land Management), while New England or the reborn Confederacy would not. But mostly we'd see an enormous amount of shuffling, and later horse trading for bits of particular agencies.
As for Wall Street, I'd expect New England would keep it going. Maybe even getting business from elsewhere, just as London does. There would be stock exchanges in other regions (last I looked, San Francisco still had their stock exchange building), just smaller than Wall Street. The biggest impact would be programmed trading would be less prominent.
"
First: obviously yes. There have been other bases for reserves, including things like gold. The dollar merely happens to have been the basis since WW II -- i.e. all of our lifetimes. That has something to do with the United States being the only major industrial nation with industry not ravaged by the war, and something to do with the US having a series of administrations right after the war which saw world trade and a world economy as being in the national interest.
How long would it take to lose it? It could be pretty gradual, with countries here and there shifting to a mix of reserves, and them the dollar drifting from still first among equals to being just another option.
But at the moment, it seems that the major impediment is simply that it takes time and care to diversify out of dollars without crashing the value of the dollars you still hold. A small economy doesn't have to worry too much about that. But big economies will want to thread the needle between on one hand setting off a dollar crash and on the other hand not moving fast enough, so that when someone else sets off the crash, they're left holding the bag.
Trump's Excellent Iranian Adventure has kick the process into high gear, with oil suddenly being traded internationally in yuan as well as in dollars. Compound that with the dollar's status being based on the "full faith and credit" of the United States combined with Trump's massive bad faith on anything and everything. I'd say it's an even money bet at the moment whether that reserve status lasts to 2028.
On “Rue Britannia!”
A question for those in the UK: Has there been any serious consideration of Single Transferable Vote, rather than Proportional Representation?
I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that it's superior both to PR and to the primary system variations that we see in the US.
On “Open Thread time”
Sometime in the next 25 years or so, there will be an opportunity for the western states . . . to go their own way.
I wonder if you could expand on this a little. Maybe even work up a post.
I'd be interested in where the time frame comes from. Also, if you have any thoughts on what our new nation's government might look. And what intergovernmental relations with the rest of the old country might look like.
Thanks
"
I'm not praising it. I'm just speculating on the cause.
"
I'm probably overthinking this. But I could see handing other parties serious defeats, even if it requires voting for Reform, in order to turf out the old guard in those parties.
"
Amusement of the day: US Central Commend calling Iranian strikes against US naval ships in the Strait of Hormuz "unprovoked." Words fail me.
"
Musk and others plan to put AI data centers in space.
Thus demonstrating their ignorance of thermodynamics. An AI data center (any data center actually) generates a lot of heat. On the ground, you either conduct that heat to air or water and then move the hot air or hot water out and pump in cold. You've essentially got the whole planet's atmosphere and oceans as a heat sink.
In space, the only way to get rid of waste heat is radiation. Which just isn't as efficient. To the point that it simply isn't feasible.
They may figure that their potential investors are utterly ignorant as well. But as an investment, snake oil is probably a better option.
"
Tippecanoe and Trumpkins too?
First thing that popped into my head. Which probably says something unfortunate about what else might be in there....
"
Wonder what Trump’s Dept of Energy will order done?
Proclaim, loudly, that the rolling blackouts aren't happening. Combined with claiming that the non-existent blackouts are the fault of California (and maybe blue areas of other states).
Actual actions? Order generators East of the Mississippi to fire up and generate more power. Yes, we all know that they are in the Eastern Interconnect Grid. But consider that, during the fires in Southern California, when there were water shortages to fight them, Trump ordered releases from reservoirs in the Central Valley. Which send water in the opposite direction. In short, do something useless.
On “It’s funny what gets left out”
Does he see Reconstruction as a time of violence? Or, more accurately, the period after it was terminated and the southern whites were empowered to institute Jim Crow and all the trimmings? Because the latter would be a pretty clear case if the reactionary right indulging in violence.
On “It’s a beautiful day to save lives”
I'm fine with medical personnel using AI to maybe catch a possible diagnosis that they missed. I am definitely not fine with AI diagnosis without serious human review.
At this point, AI (which mostly is LLM rather than true AI) is a fad which simply isn't ready for prime time. Unfortunately, I expect it to require a couple of really ugly disasters to inject some reality into the discussion.
On “China, redux”
lj, I'm thinking that perhaps women find it easier to get people to open up and talk to them. In short, to gather information to analyze and to report on.
In as patriarchal a society as China, they may be seen as less threatening. That would apply across the economy and across society, not just when it comes to understanding social and cultural changes.
"
I note that The Economist's China staff (those that aren't ex-pat Brits) all seem to be women as well. Including those from Taipei and Singapore. Hmmm....
On “Wait, this isn’t from the Onion?!?”
The good news, the Trump-defaced passports will only be available (as an option) to those applying in person in DC. Normal people will just get the regular, boring old version. Wonder how many MAGAts will make the trek to DC to get their cult version.
On “Clusterfucks r us”
There's also the detail (for those who celebrate) that to be 86ed isn't something fatal. As I understand it, it means getting tossed out of the bar/pub for drunk and disorderly type behaviour.
And so a reasonable person could take it as simply a call to impeach and remove Trump. Which he, admittedly, might consider a fate worse than death. But legally? Definitely on the utter nonsense side of dubious.
On “color me gobsmacked”
Interesting, in light of our discussion earlier about which autocracies might be a model for Iran. The generals (apparently) taking the reins in the negotiations, and even pushing the mullahs to the side, makes our selection of Pakistan look like we might actually know what we're talking about. (It's that or the blind pig....)
On “Clusterfucks r us”
Agreed. There's simply no way the Republicans currently in Congress can break with Trump without sacrificing their political careers. They'd be primaried, probably successfully, in a heartbeat. And they know it.
After an electoral bloodbath in November (assuming that, as now seems likely, that occurs), their calculations may change. They might figure that distance would help going forward. At least a little distance. Alternatively, they might decide to double down. That would be counterproductive, but nonetheless is what I expect.
On “What a wonderful world?”
Iran can probably cross some of those options off quickly.
That leaves Pakistan and China. Of those, Pakistan seems a closer fit, given the power of the military in each. The CCP's absolute control over the PLA is not going to happen with the Revolutionary Guard generals. As attractive as China's use of military force to put down popular protest may be to the mullahs, I expect that they would at most cherry pick that into a different system. But there's no religious authority in Pakistan equivalent to the mullahs, so not a great fit either.
One other option which should probably be mentioned is the world's other Islamic theocracy: Saudi Arabia. Naturally, Iran would never, ever, admit to copying anything from the Saudis. But more than that, there's no figurehead equivelent to the House of Saud. (Nor likely to be. See the remarks about North Korea.)
So, overall I would expect Iran to come up with a model all its own. Picking bits and pieces from other authoritarians, and inventing some all their own. But nothing even close to those other models.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.