by liberal japonicus
Natalie Kitroeff: You’re starting to get into this, but let’s talk about the actual terms of any deal. You said these generals are open to a real give-and-take with the American side. So, what are they willing to offer, and what do they want?
Farnaz Fassihi: The most important incentive for Iran, its leaders, and the Revolutionary Guards is to reach an end to hostilities and get sanctions relief. Iran’s economy was in shambles even before the war; its currency was plunging and inflation was skyrocketing. The war has made everything worse. On top of that, there is an estimated $300 billion to $1 trillion in economic losses as a result of the war.
In order for Iran to rebuild and reconstruct, it needs to lift sanctions and gain access to its funds and the global financial markets. From Iran’s perspective, the idea is: “The United States and Israel have destroyed a lot of our country. We need money to rebuild it.”
We need money to rebuild and to improve the economy because one of the big sources of dissent and protests has been economically driven. They have proposed a detailed list of ways American companies can invest in Iran. For the first time in 47 years, the generals have told the Americans, “If there’s a deal, your oil and shipping companies can come and invest in Iran. You can help us reconstruct.”
That is something that has never been done before. The senior Ayatollah had specifically banned all American companies from entering Iran after the 2015 nuclear deal, and now the generals are doing away with that order.
Natalie Kitroeff: They are actually talking about inviting the Americans in as investors and collaborators? You’re saying they want to work with them to rebuild the country? Really?
Farnaz Fassihi: Yes, exactly. These generals are appealing to President Trump’s business and deal-making side. They are trying to create financial incentives for the Trump administration to engage with Iran, similar to what a lot of other countries have done.
Imagine a president who could grasp the possibilities…
They’re speaking his language.
If they can find a way to carve out some candy for Trump and his friends and family my guess is the war will end in about 10 seconds.
Interesting, in light of our discussion earlier about which autocracies might be a model for Iran. The generals (apparently) taking the reins in the negotiations, and even pushing the mullahs to the side, makes our selection of Pakistan look like we might actually know what we’re talking about. (It’s that or the blind pig….)