by liberal japonicus
I was listening to this Foreign Policy podcast and I’ve cued it up to the spot, but for those who don’t like to listen, after a long discussion about Iran and the dumpster fire that the whole situation is, the two wonder what will be the future model for Iran and give a depressingly long set of options whose only good point is that it allows me to use the list function here.
- North Korea
- Pakistan
- Cuba
- Turkey
- Russia
- China
I’m sure all of you will have your own opinions that you can put in the comments, but I remember the whole bullshit thing about how we had to be for states’ rights because they were the laboratories of democracy and trying different ideas would allow us to hit about the best and use those nationally. If the list above is anything to go on, the same goes for authoritarian governments. Let a 1000 flowers bloom, I guess…
Iran can probably cross some of those options off quickly.
That leaves Pakistan and China. Of those, Pakistan seems a closer fit, given the power of the military in each. The CCP’s absolute control over the PLA is not going to happen with the Revolutionary Guard generals. As attractive as China’s use of military force to put down popular protest may be to the mullahs, I expect that they would at most cherry pick that into a different system. But there’s no religious authority in Pakistan equivalent to the mullahs, so not a great fit either.
One other option which should probably be mentioned is the world’s other Islamic theocracy: Saudi Arabia. Naturally, Iran would never, ever, admit to copying anything from the Saudis. But more than that, there’s no figurehead equivelent to the House of Saud. (Nor likely to be. See the remarks about North Korea.)
So, overall I would expect Iran to come up with a model all its own. Picking bits and pieces from other authoritarians, and inventing some all their own. But nothing even close to those other models.
The Reichstag Fire is lit:
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2026/04/shots-fired-at-white-house-correspondents-dinner
They will murder all of us.
Shots fired.
Why not sell the effing ballroom?
https://digbysblog.net/2026/04/25/absolutely-astonishing/
And, the were:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/karoline-leavitt-made-bizarre-shots-fired-brag-minutes-before-shooting/
there
My own guess is that the IRGC will take an even larger and more explicit role in running the place. Basically a military dictatorship with the blessing of the mullahs.
The President and Parliament will be increasingly irrelevant.
So probably most like Pakistan rather than the others on the list, but more explicitly theocratic.
But Pakistan is also infamous for its blasphemy and apostasy (show) trials. Imo a lot of the ‘theocratic’ stuff in Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia is just a tool used by corrupt elites to stay in power and grift undisturbed. That’s what certain US megachurch pastors and televangelists can as of yet only dream off (although they are already highly successful in the grift business).
I would agree that Pakistan but better organized seems to be the closest model.
I’ve just been watching the footage from the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. I find it fascinating that the Secret Service hustle Vance out first, then come back for Trump. Has there been much speculation or commentary about that?