by liberal japonicus
An openish thread that starts off with me observing that the Japanese national broadcaster NHK played Civil War on July 4th. If you are unaware of the movie, the trailer is below the fold. I’m sure it was just a coincidence. Observations of all flavors welcome!
Somehow I suspect that, if we were to get to the point where there are multiple secessionist movements, all of them would be fighting each other as well. Proclaiming themselves the “one true heirs”** of what was good about the dissolving United States. Perhaps not initially. But certainly once it becomes likely that the national government is being defeated.
If there was a single secessionist group, that would be a different story. But multiple groups seceding? Alliances of convenience at most. And temporary ones at that.
** Yes, I know. A true Scotsman/etc.
for another take on US civil war pt 2: see The Handmaid’s Tale
I’m hoping that an openish thread is much the same as an open thread, but that’s for the future. For now, in line with this thread’s actual title, this is Ezra Klein in today’s NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/opinion/obama-trump-presidency-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.vVA.DrDq.XjOJh1qXlKhA&smid=url-share
And this, at the expense of using up 2 of my 10 gift links so early in the month, is the opinion of the NYT’s editorial board:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/opinion/america-at-250.html?unlocked_article_code=1.vVA.tQlK.fqxyAxCt6Chs&smid=url-share
I’ve recently seen a much-repeatedly claim that the USA is “the world’s oldest continuous democracy”. I’d like to know – this is a genuine question – what the definition of democracy is which makes this claim true. Thank you.
Pro Bono: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2019/08/countries-are-the-worlds-oldest-democracies/
The US had close calls in 1860 and during the Great Depression, and only just kept the government together each time.
Switzerland is next oldest, having collapsed in the political strains of 1848 that did for many nations. UK’s continuity dates from the Third Reform.
the comments on that Klein article inspire no hope – people who can’t count to 60 complaining that Obama didn’t perform miracles and hand-deliver their golden-maned ponies.
Thank you, nous. The trick part of the definition is “A majority of adult men has the right to vote.” So it requires nothing approaching universal suffrage, or even universal male suffrage, and the USA qualifies.
By my definition, which I think a natural one, the USA became democratic with the Voting Rights Act in 1965.
…what the definition of democracy is which makes this claim true.
Oh! Oh! I know this. Oldest single-document codified constitution establishing some form of representative democracy. San Marino and the UK have parts that are older, but fail the single-document test.
Somehow I suspect that, if we were to get to the point where there are multiple secessionist movements, all of them would be fighting each other as well.
wj, you’re not thinking like a serious conspirator. More precisely, you’re not plotting like a serious conspirator. Conspirators start from a particular secession goal, say, my hypothetical country made up the 13 states with capitals west of the Great Plains’ mid-line. The goal is the Western States of America. If I’m seriously plotting that, I don’t care about the 37 states east of that hypothetical border except that I need 25 of them to go along with the necessary constitutional amendment (de jure or de facto).
Do the Old Confederacy states want to have a racist misogynist theocracy? That’s okay as long as they’re willing to let the West go. Is the BosWash corridor violently opposed to that theocracy? That’s okay as long as they’re willing to let the West stay out of the fight. Is the Midwest determined that cities in that region will submit to the will of the ruralistas? That’s okay so long as they admit that the rural minority in the West is so small that scheme can’t possibly work out there, so letting the West go doesn’t matter.
Any real partition requires different regions looking to their own situation, not to imposing their will on other regions.
Any real partition requires different regions looking to their own situation
Well, that and some way to decide who falls into which region. To take your case, do Wyoming and Idaho really want to be part of a country massively dominated by California? Plus Washington and Oregon of similar liberal, as opposed to libertarian, views.
Those and other edge cases would probably determine whether the whole partition thing would work. Unless somebody figures out a way to split urban islands from the surrounding rural areas and make partitions work without geographically contiguous areas.
wj – How much ID and WY might favor or not a partition that put them in association with OR, WA, and CA would likely vary greatly depending on the proposed institutional rules for representation and collective decision making. We’ve learned a lot about these things over the last 250 years, and you can bet that getting an agreement done would require a lot of compromises WRT member sovereignty, voting rules, etc.. I’d expect something more like the EU than like the US Constitution as a structure.
I’d expect something more like the EU than like the US Constitution as a structure.
nous, another question will be whether we have something like the EU based on existing states as is. Or whether state borders get revised as well. For example, do we take Washington and Oregon as is? Or do we combine them and redivide to create a new border along (approximately) the Cascades? The later would give two far more culturally homogeneous states.
Then there’s the question of rural vs urban areas. For example, Boise has far more in common, culturally, with other urban areas in the West than it does with rural areas of Idaho. Perhaps not cities like Seattle or San Francisco. But Spokane or Fresno — quite possibly. Just another detail that would have to be thrashed out. “Detail”, but not a minor issue for those involved.
the Boiseans will be incentivized to adapt to their new situation. those who refuse will be used as examples to others.
This from GftNC’s second gift link gets to the discussion of civil war. Once we allow the rules to become optional, people become willing to resort to violence. I’m sure everyone here is aware of recent surveys demonstrating that significant percentages of Americans believe that violence is either necessary or likely for the country to change course. That appears to be true regardless of what course people prefer.
“Self-government is, in part, a system for handling disagreement without bloodshed, and its indispensable habit is the willingness of the defeated to accept defeat, surrender power and live to argue another day. This habit asks something difficult: that we value the rules of the contest more than the outcome we wanted.”
hairshirthedonist – I find it typical that the NYT, like most liberal leaning moderates, focus on only half of the secret sauce – the willingness of the ascendant parties to forbear and offer compromise to the subordinate parties. What I think they neglect is the necessity of all parties to recognize the presence of the Other in their society as a necessary condition, along with an awareness that violent conflict maims the future good of both the victorious and the vanquished. It’s all an exercise in restraint and mutual acknowledgement. Without that the compromise is merely a tactical delay, and not a cessation.
So the important question is: should I be for or against the US team tonight? Are they nice? Do they play well? What do they represent? Do they like Trump? He seems to hate football, sorry ‘soccer’, because it’s full of foreigners and there’s a bit of a woke vibe about it all. What status does it have in the US these days?
I think I’m overthinking things.
USAMN team is full of immigrant backgrounds: https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-us-world-cup-teams-immigrant-backgrounds-12075902
The right is annoyed by its mere existence, and thinks it a sissy sport.
OT – gotta get my thumb pinned tomorrow, looks more like a 10 week, rather than a one month recovery.
Lucky me.
Still grateful that this is the most of my current worries, and that care is covered and this is happening when I am not teaching.
So take that “lucky” as fully mixed.
From another universe in the multiverse. The US team meets before the match and says that though the foul was ticky-tack, Balogan will sit out of the game. The match is hard fought, but the Belgians win on a Golden Time goal. In the press conference after the match, the US team says that they would rather lose with dignity than have the game outcome changed by political means.
I know, reading too many comic books.
Goldzilla ruins everything.
“Overturn this.”
So that issue sorted itself out quite nicely. It seems the US team are a nice bunch, though, so good luck in 4 years, hopefully with a better president.
what could be more American than not knowing what July 4th celebrates?
I agree with novakant, it’s not the US team’s fault. If they had won it would have been tainted, even in their own minds. But the score was a real bonus.
nous, Goldzilla is a masterpiece. That’s it for me from now on.
Good God, have just watched Nigel Farage’s statement live. What a fascinating piece of political oratory. He buried the lede, but it is that he is resigning as Clacton’s MP but immediately standing again as a candidate in the ensuing by-election. It will be absolutely riveting to see what effect this has on Reform voters – his popularity has been sinking as a result of all the scandalous financial and conflict of interest stuff, but let’s see what effect this rhetoric has on the Clacton electorate.
Farage Forgoes to Forestall Farrago?
Civil War it is!
Directly from the Oval Office of the White House, in Washington DC, the Capitol of the United States of America, live, the fully MAGA Republican Conservative Racist White Nationalist Christian Movement choose Bullets over Ballots.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trump-s-childhood-friend-urges-him-to-declare-national-emergency-to-take-control-of-midterms-report/ar-AA27mJhW?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=6a4d0a9d8ea84eb586849f41ad57405a&ei=102
They refer to us as subhuman Demons. Make no mistake; they will murder all of us.
Speak to no conservative, no Republican, no Christian, no MAGA vermin.
80 million of them have been deputized to identify us in preparation for the Christian, God-ordained Final Solution in this killing field.
One can cackle at, and still see through the absolutely farcical nature of what is happening, America’s reality show genocide with promises of sequels, AND keep a fully-loaded automatic weapon at the ready.
They’ll refer to the massacre as limited government.
Apparently, none of the other major parties is planning to put up a candidate opposite Farage, so if he only faces Count Binface he will certainly win (would probably win against any of them) but as soon as he wins, the investigation against him continues, possibly joined by other recent allegations, and if he is found guilty there may be another by-election after that. And I don’t know, in that case, if he would even by eligible to run. Meanwhile, diehard Reform supporters (rather like MAGA) can’t see anything particularly bad in what he has been accused of – “all of those politicians are a bit dodgy aren’t they?”. So who knows what the end result of it all will be. And, just like Goldzilla, a lot of his speech was dedicated to the fact that he has been the most persecuted politician in modern history…
Further to which, it does indeed look as if Farage’s only opponent will be Count Binface, so I thought ObWi might be interested to see his manifesto for the recent Makersfield by-election:
https://x.com/newsandpics/status/2074589902239305751
And, on Farage’s claim to be the most persecuted politician in modern history, people have been reminding him (online) that in the last 10 years 2 MPs have been assassinated.
Three pins put through my thumb metacarpal for the next four weeks. Glad to have it done, but not a fun night. Much better so far today.
Typing with a left-handed accent.