by liberal japonicus
Giving you this Mother Jones link entitled The Future in Texas Is Bright and Terrifying. Here’s the final graf
That’s the dynamic in the nation’s largest red state heading into the midterms. It is not ideal, for a pluralistic society, but it feels appropriate for 2026: a Democratic Party with maybe a puncher’s chance if its candidates do everything right—and a Republican base testing just how far gone it can go, before it ever pays a price for anything.
I’m seeing the phrase ‘Puncher’s chance’ all the time. The phrase refers to a fighter getting the shit beat out of him (or her, I suppose) and landing a big punch in the last round, so I guess it is appropriate. Gemini tells me that “a puncher’s chance is unlikely enough that you’d be surprised if it happened, but frequent enough that you can’t ignore it” but also “refers to a probability range between 0.1% and 5%”. Sounds about right.
Nous also posted this comment
There were about 100,000 more total votes in the D US Senate primary than there were in the R US Senate primary. Texas is still very red, but even with some election ratfucking going on, the Dems managed to turn out in competitive numbers.
Crockett has come out already for Talarico, trying to use her own momentum to boost him for the general election. Talarico still needs to go to the districts where Crockett won big and make sure to do some listening and show that he’ll fight for them as well, but I’m sure he will be on that soon. The big difference between those two is more one of tone and emphasis than of any substantive policy difference.
Talarico did especially well in latinx border districts, which could be a promising sign for how latinx Trump voters might break now that it’s clear that the R economic promises were bunk and their communities are a target.
Harris, who had endorsed Crockett, is already starting to reach out to her supporters to rally their support for Talarico.
And noted that his wish was that Paxton and Cornyn make like ‘bantam roosters’. I think that if Cornyn had won, you would want Crockett but if Paxton wins, you want Talarico. Paxton is more adept at claiming victimhood and I’m sure that Crockett’s sound bites would be put on repeat. Anyway, thoughts?
I know it says Texas, but in Montana… Daines, the incumbent US Senator up for reelection this year withdrew from the Republican primary today. The US Attorney for Montana filed for the Republican Senate primary at the last minute. Sheehy, the other Republican US Senator from Montana reportedly broke the hand of a uniformed Marine veteran as the vet was removed from a committee hearing room this afternoon.
From a thousand miles away, and general ignorance: it seems like the key to the Democrats winning in Texas is the Latino vote. And, from what little I’ve read, Talarico seems to have better prospects on that front.
And it has to help that the Democrats are already rallying around. As for Cornyn and Paxton, I’m not much on the “bantam roosters” analogy. I yhink I’d rather go with “rabid weasels.”. Just a personal preference, but I think it suits the participants better.
I saw a bare mention of that, but no details. Any idea why?
Not a huge Chris Cillizza fan, (see https://pressthink.org/2012/08/everything-thats-wrong-with-political-journalism-in-one-washington-post-item/
and
https://www.pastemagazine.com/politics/chris-cillizza/chris-cillizza-milquetoast-hack-and-enemy-of-truth )
but he gives this about the Montana race
https://youtu.be/vTBcfv55twQ?si=tjkYL94FzQevEzcz
According to the NYT:
Don’t know how well that will fly. Seems that all of his successor’s opponents are going to run against the idea of a hand-picked successor who has not had to face any opposition. I know a few people who got really upset when Harris got the nod without having gone through a primary, and in that case it wasn’t even her fault or Biden’s intention to put her in that position.
Hopefully the Democratic candidate is someone who can exploit this opportunity.
Cillizza says a couple of times ‘but this is Montana’. It’s hard to figure out if he’s pointing out that the state went to Trump the past three presidential cycles (56%, 57%, and 58%) or that he thinks that they are all inbred idiots (or maybe both), but Tester got 44,000 more votes that Harris did, so there was split voting, and Tester tagged Sheehy as ‘Transfer Tim’ (he moved in from Minnesota), though Sheehy still won. Unfortunately, the newcomers to the state voted Republican.
There is no Democrat running, but Seth Bodnar is running as an independent. Bodnar was president of the Uni of Montana, and is a veteran. Montana has a strong relationship with Kumamoto, so I should start talking him up over here.
I’d personally be happy if we had several independents pick up seats, I’d like to think that it might help.
More details from Bodnar’s wikipedia page
On January 14, 2026, it was reported that former United States senator Jon Tester had successfully convinced Bodnar to run as an independent candidate for Montana’s Class 1 Senate seat, facing off against Republican incumbent Steve Daines in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.[14] The news broke after a text message, allegedly sent by Tester to a confidant, was leaked to the Missoulian in which Tester criticized the Democratic Party, calling it “a poison in his attempts to get re-elected”. The sender of the text message, purported to be Tester, further argued that Bodnar would have a stronger chance at defeating Daines running as a political independent than Democratic state legislator Reilly Neill, who was the then-frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.[15]
And I think this is the Sheehy incident
https://youtube.com/shorts/1Rj9mXzscnU?si=Cz6Ht29ITxdR8Crt
I suppose this is the best thread to discuss the SAVE America Act. Don l’orange is pushing hard to sign it into law before the midterms. I wonder, though, if it will really help the GOP as much as he seems to think were it to pass in time.
Midterms are dominated by the most reliable voters, which means they’re already registered and probably have ID. At least I would think so.
Of the people the act would disenfranchise, the question becomes what the breakdown in party would be – particularly as concerns mail-in voting. It’s more popular with Democrats, but I think the split has moved closer to being even in recent years. (The act has exceptions for military, disabled people, and a few others.)
Some stats here:
https://statesunited.org/resources/americans-vote-by-mail-2024/
The biggest skews are toward older people and white people. The act has exceptions for military, disabled people, and a few others. Letting people in the military vote by mail obviously helps Republicans. To the extent that there’s overlap between older people and disabled people, there’s also some benefit for Republicans.
Interesting points, hsh.
I’m wondering if, by sending them into combat with not even an explanation, let alone a statement of what constitutes victory, Trump may have managed to at least seriously reduce that Republican skew. Maybe to as far as politically balanced, but a lot less enthused.
GOP: perhaps on its way to becoming just another example of “everything Trump touches dies.”
WJ – GOP: perhaps on its way to becoming just another example of “everything Trump touches dies.”
…but it’s been working swimmingly so far for Putin – guess that’s because Vlad is the dom and Donald is the sub in that relationship.
I suppose this is the best thread to discuss the SAVE America Act. Don l’orange is pushing hard to sign it into law before the midterms.
The version of the SAVE Act that passed the House and has been submitted to the Senate affects registration. The most onerous provisions that Trump rattles off in his social postings — restrictions on mail-distributed ballots, photo id for in-person voting, etc — are not in this bill. Thune has already said he doesn’t have the votes to dump the filibuster for this bill; some people believe he doesn’t have enough votes to pass it even w/o the filibuster. As for Trump’s demands, I don’t think either Thune or Johnson have the votes to pass something that requires state/local Republicans to implement a new voting system on the fly, in a very short period, sans funding.
Thanks for the clarification, MC. I’ve since discovered the MEGA (Make Elections Great Again – how original!) act with even more neat stuff in it. Holy hell.