by liberal japonicus
The Guardian reports the following:
The US and Iran agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire on Tuesday evening after a last-minute diplomatic intervention led by Pakistan, canceling an ultimatum from Donald Trump for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction.
Trump’s announcement of the ceasefire agreement came less than two hours before the US president’s self-imposed 8pm Eastern time deadline to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges in a move that legal scholars, as well as officials from numerous countries and the Pope, had warned could constitute war crimes.
As the title suggests, I am assuming that Pakistan is acting as a cut out for China, as it would be a humiliation beyond belief to have China have anything to do with this. The statement by Iran’s foreign minister has the Strait open for 2 weeks with coordination from (the obliterated according to our dear orange shitstain) armed forces of Iran. This will allow China to coordinate with the Iranian military and bring oil through the strait, which will then be refined and distributed to countries hit hard by fuel shortages. 双赢 in Chinese, which means win-win!
No word on whether the Chinese will be updating the One Belt, One Road (一带一路) to One Belt, One Road, One Gas stand.
So far, there seems to be little agreement between the United States, Israel, Iran, Lebanon, and the Arab Gulf states about who is involved in the ceasefire, who is not, and the terms. Israel/US says Lebanon is not included, Israel continues air strikes there. Iran says Lebanon is included, keeps the Strait closed. KSA and UAE disagree on tolls entirely, with KSA having made air strikes in Iran and UAE threatening to freeze/confiscate Iranian assets in their banking system. Kuwait seems to say that damage from Iranian strikes have put them out of the oil and LNG business entirely.
The best option for the Middle East, in terms of American involvement, is for King Pussygrabber to declare victory and turn his attention to tariffs and rants on social media. Then let the regional players work it out. (Yes, I know, the regional players will have a job working it out, esp. with Netanyahu, but getting Trump out of the talks is essential. If he sends Kushner over to be the diplomat, he’ll support whoever gives him the biggest bribe.)
Absolutely. It’s another instance of “Everything Trump Touches Dies.”** If you want a peace deal that even sort-of works, having Trump nowhere near it, visibly nowhere near it, is critical.
** Manifestly in progress with the Republican Party. I’m eagerly awaiting its appearance with Putin/Russia.
It appears that, so far, the Pakistanis are keeping things going. Maybe not moving forward noticably yet, but at least still talking, albeit indirectly.
It does seem a bit odd that the Secretary of State isn’t involved. I can guess why (he’s a long time Iran hawk), but it still seems odd. Then again, the State Department having been gutted of it’s area experts, he might not have a team to support him if he was there.
I assume that Rubio is letting Vance immolate himself. He might even be saying ‘well, I’ve been an Iran hawk, the Iranians won’t negotiate with me. On the other hand, Vance, because he doesn’t have all my baggage, needs to be the one’.
I don’t want to discount the possibility that Trump might send a few missiles into the negotiations, cause that seems to be what he does. [sarcasm]
I don’t want to discount the possibility that Trump might send a few missiles into the negotiations, cause that seems to be what he does. [sarcasm]
Maybe not in Pakistan itself (they have nukes after all).
But sabotaging the negotiations by bombing in Iran would not come as a surprise. And if not him, the yahoo from Netanja will do so without much hesitation. Downing the plane transporting the delegation back home would be something he’d love to do, I presume.
Forthe moment, he seems to be going for an arguably less locally drastic (locally) option of blockading the Hormuz Strait himself. It will, however, be far more damaging, in and of itself, for the world economy. That will definitely earn us friends around the world. So, totally in character [/sarcasm]
OMG! Orban concedes defeat!
I wanted it so badly, I was convinced it wouldn’t happen! OMG!
It looks to be a massive enough loss (like 2/3 against him) that even major shenanigans weren’t going to change the result. Conceding is probably a matter of staying out of prison.