by liberal japonicus
I earlier noted Vance’s defenestration of his wife re: her religion, so when this article about how MAGA is none too pleased about Vivek Ramaswamy running for Ohio governor came up, it prompted a few thoughts. From the article:
Ramaswamy posted a message on X soon after Trump’s endorsement, writing: Thank you, Mr. President, for securing our border & making America safer. Now it’s up to the states to do our part. More energy. More housing. More high-quality education. Less crime. Less taxation. Less bureaucracy. Starting in Ohio soon.”
His message stirred a row, with many conservatives insisting that “MAGA will never accept you,” while others argued that he remained an outsider trying to win over a movement that had not fully embraced him. Supporters pushed back, saying Trump’s backing should settle the matter.
The article has some amusing tweets concerning the dissatisfaction of MAGA faithful to Vivek’s candidacy. But beyond the schadenfreude it provides (in spades!), one thing that struck me was how the virtue of being faithful to an idea (in this case, Amurika for Amurikans) could be a fatal flaw for the MAGA faithful. It’s a common notion that one’s greatest strength is often their biggest weakness and this seems to be indicative of that. Thoughts?
At heart, MAGA’s problem is one of definition: who counts as Amurikans? Ramaswamy obviously feels that he qualifies. (No clue what his personal definition is. Maybe “anyone Trump supports is in”?) Others, using different definitions, differ. And not just about him.
The thing is, there are lots of definitions. And a movement based on exclusion is in trouble without a single, unified, definition. A charismatic figurehead can, with work, paper over the differences, at least for a while. But MAGAworld looks to be losing their unifying leader, so the fractures over definition are appearing. Put another way, the knives are coming out.
Well, the SCOTUS precedent is clear: Aryans are welcome – provided they are NOT Indian (even if they out-racist most Nazis).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Bhagat_Singh_Thind
I don’t know if or what to extent this fits in this thread, but rather than starting yet another one I am linking here a gift article in today’s Atlantic by a Reagan appointed judge about the reasons for his resignation: tl;dr Trump’s lawlessness:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/11/federal-judge-resignation-trump/684845/?gift=cx0iluuWx4Cg7JjlT8ugCRF_CkCtm_1560slsmw2zv8&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
If or to what extent….
I think the tendency of Congressional Democrats to try to find compromise and “solutions” is a positive that functions as a negative. I am so completely disgusted by the stupidity of the Senate Dems of the Cowardly Cave In Caucus.
wonkie, that’s an excellent observation, especially if the dems do fold on the shutdown as has been reported.
Done deal:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/11/09/democrat-senators-who-voted-end-shutdown/87190180007/
Cortez Masto (NV), Fetterman (PA), Durbin (IL), Hassan (NH), Kaine (VA), Rosen (NV), Shaheen (NH), King (Ind. ME).
The Nevada contingent aren’t much of a surprise. Fetterman is Manchin in a hoodie. Shaheen and Durbin are retiring and probably decided to throw themselves on the cloture grenade to end the shutdown because there were other Dems that were wavering and wanted cover.
I really wish that they would have held out at least until the First Circuit handed down their decision on SNAP. If they had affirmed that SNAP needed covering, then the cloture could have come right after The Ancient Orange One went on record *yet again* to deny aid to hungry children and seniors. The Dems could have been the compassionate ones in that moment. Had the First Circuit sided with The Ancient Orange One, the Dems could play it just the same and be the ones coming to the rescue of the needy.
This just looks like a loss of courage in the wake of a Blue Wave, and it kills any sense of momentum or hope.
A lot of Reactionary Centrists have been arguing that this was inevitable, and that the people who wanted to continue the shutdown were all callously ignoring the plight of the needy from positions of privilege. They consistently fail to see beyond electoral politics.
This feels premature.
It seems there is always a faction of Democrats who find a way to take two steps back as soon as the party manages one step forward. It’s too easy to be the lesser of two evils when the greater evil is evil itself.
First Circuit Appeals Court has upheld the SNAP ruling, and Justice Jackson has given the administration until 11am to decide whether they want to continue with the appeal.
Should have waited for this to hit before caving on cloture.
Pretty clear where this is going. First, it isn’t going anywhere unless Johnson is willing to bring the House back into session to vote on the changes from what they previously passed. In which case . . . Epstein Files! And if he won’t, no cover about “if only the Democrats would let the Senate vote.” They totally own the mess.
Second, assuming it passes, then what. First, a lot of Federal employees who were stuck working without pay, or were furloughed, get their family economies patched up thru the holidays. Also, the new funding bill only runs thru the end of January. Which means that we probably see another shutdown then — lest voters forget this shutdown by the time voting starts.
Oh yes, there will be the usual wailing and rending of garments from the left. Because, the very idea of something less than total victory is anathema. But then, strategy and tactics: not a core competency there.
My bet is that the Democrats end up with a big boost out of this, come next November. And that’s assuming (and frankly, it’s a heroic assumption) that, some time next spring, the Republicans in Congress get themselves together without another shutdown at the end of the fiscal year, i.e. next fall, right before the election.
What a spineless bunch they are, or maybe just so stupid and naive they still think they’re essentially dealing with politics as usual. They are the very definition of the frog in the heating-up pot.
“Oh yes, there will be the usual wailing and rending of garments from the left. Because, the very idea of something less than total victory is anathema. But then, strategy and tactics: not a core competency there.”
The idea wasn’t total victory–only saving people who get ACA insurance. That’s all. There was never an effort to save Medicaid, prevent the cuts in Medicare that are coming because of the increased deficit, roll back the tax cuts for the rich…the Republican bill sucks in every aspect but the Dems in Congress chose only one to stand on and they caved on that one.
Now all those people will lose their insurance because they won’t be able to afford the rate increase. I lost my insurance temporarily a while ago and had to pay 900 for a one-month COBRA. It’s not the kind of experience people forget or forgive.
I agree that strategy and tactics are not core competencies with the DSA left. It should be obvious though that for DECADES strategy and tactics have not been core to Congressional Dems either, not when it comes to national issues.
They completely fail to understand that they are not going to get MAGA votes, that the Republican party never operates in good faith, and that outside of MAGA most voters (especially indies) vote emotionally and have no clue at all about insider baseball tactics or policies and want to be able to vote for perceived strength and commitment.
Acting in a way that leads to headlines that say, “Dems agree to end shutdown” followed by millions suffering rate increases is fucking stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid–on an order of stupid as supporting the war in Iraq.
These are not the kind of headlines that lead to a blue wave in the midterms. These are the kind of headlines that lead to “Both parties suck, there’s no point in voting, vote third party, Dems are weak, Dems don’t fight…” Democrats Concede Shutdown Fight Without Health Care Win in Hand
Now our strategy going forward to save the Democrats from complete disgrace is to run hard against the Cowardly Cave-in Caucus and get headlines that say “Don’t Blame the Whole Party for the Acts of Few” which is a muddled message with nowhere near the power of the bad press the CCC has given us. Still, it’s the only way to have any credibility in the midterms. Dems running for Congress will have to run hard against the decision to end the shut down without saving the ACA. ‘Making this deal is malpractice.’ It’s Democrat vs. Democrat as shutdown nears end
Josh Marshall seems reasonably sanguine about it:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-quick-take-on-team-caves-big-win/sharetoken/32bf02be-00e6-4b69-8f8e-4aa805cf9e0e
Also:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/with-a-day-to-think-about-it
GftNC, you have to understand. For some, the options were a) cave in like this (their phrasing, not mine), or b) hang tough a tiny bit longer until the Republicans cave. If those were indeed the choices, their rage over option a) would be well placed.
But those weren’t actually the options. Instead we had
a) accept a continuing resolution for the next couple of months, get some relief for a whole lot of Federal workers, and pick up the fight again in January. There is, after all, no chance the GOP will be in any better position then than now. Oh yes, and get a couple of elected Democrats seated finally.
Or
b) hang tough, no matter the collateral damage. While a lot of Federal workers go bankrupt, SNAP money runs out (for real), and a lot of people see their health insurance premiums skyrocket — except they hear a lot about how the Democrats wouldn’t let a bill to fix it even come to a vote.
Be clear, getting ACA funding done wasn’t going to happen either way. (At least not for several more months minimum.). But this way, it’s starkly obvious that the Republicans have sole ownership of the mess.
Wjca’s point about whether Johnson will bring the House back or not is an interesting one. He’s kind of between a rock and a hard place.
But overall I’m with wonkie.
What is not going to come out of all of this is any kind of extension of the ACA subsidies. Trump hates the ACA because people call it Obamacare and he hates hates hates hates hates Obama because that uppity black man made fun of him.
The “deal” is for a vote in the Senate. Which may or may not happen. There is no deal with the House. Trump has Johnson on some kind of weird short leash, which means there will not be a deal in the House.
And yes, what most people are going to take away from all of this is (a) the Dems caved and (b) my health insurance costs are going to be utterly unsustainable.
I’ll also say that I find the “wailing and rending of garments on the left” line a bit offensive. This isn’t some political inside baseball thing. People are going to have to choose between health insurance and other really essential things. They’re gonna have to work another job, or sell their house, or not go to college. Stuff like that.
Or, just not have health insurance, cross their fingers, and hope they get lucky. Which some of them will not be, and some of those folks will die.
It’s a fucking disaster.
What is not going to come out of all of this is any kind of extension of the ACA subsidies.
My point was, that extension wasn’t going to come out regardless. Those Republicans in Congress (on their own, let alone driven by Trump) simply are not going to extend those until the increased insurance costs generate howls from their own constituents. And they never were. There simply is no plausible scenario where that would happen before spring. Because, even if the Senate Republicans were somehow brought to agree to it, the House simply wouldn’t concur.
Whether they allow a vote next month on those subsidies, as agreed, or not, it’s fairly certain that an extension will fail to pass. And when it does, it will be defeated stand-alone — no other spending distractions. (Of course, the Congressional Republicans might surprise us all. But I figure it will be months before they can bring themselves to act.)
I think it is a mistake to treat the defection of the eight and the decision to end the shutdown as only a matter of cost/benefit analysis for the possible outcomes. My earlier quotation addresses that:
Please don’t be so “revolutionary” that you think electoral politics never matter and please don’t be so “moderate” that you think electoral politics are all that matter. – Abiola Agoro
As I have said before of union bargaining strategies, sometimes it’s important to fight a losing battle in order to establish the narrative for the next battle and make your opponent think about the cost of that next victory. It’s the reason why so many older brothers say that you have to hit the bully as hard as you can even if they are going to beat the crap out of you. It also sends an important message to allies and bystanders that the bully can be resisted and hurt.
So for me the questions “are we going to win?” and “are people going to get hurt if we resis?t” are not the only important questions. It’s also important to ask how accepting that loss at this moment is going to affect the public narrative and the results of the next such confrontation. If holding out for another week gives the GOP another full week of having to deal with Blue Wave stories without significantly adding to the suffering of at-risk people, then I think you have to try to stretch it for one more week, and your caucus puts energy into helping take the sting out of the need with food drives and informational campaigns and partnerships with progressive faith groups. You still give in, but you give in on your terms, when you have a more opportune moment to control the narrative.
I think this is what Agoro is getting at when she says not to be so moderate that you think electoral politics are all that matter.
I’ll also say here that I think Kaine, being the Senator for Virginia, was probably under a lot of pressure from a constituency that is heavy with fired federal workers who were asking him to find a way to get them their jobs back. I think his decision made sense, and while I don’t think he should be let off the hook, I do think that any punishment he get from the caucus should be less than what the others receive.
The others should be out in the cold for any political favors for a long time, and I would not be sad if they were challenged in their next primaries.
My point was, that extension wasn’t going to come out regardless.
You are most likely right.
The wailing and rending of garments is not going to be “on the left”. It’s going to be coming from all the people who are being immiserated by this catastrophe of an administration.
I think the “capitulation” was leadership’s call. They had done as much damage politically to Trump and the GOP as they could get, and neither Trump nor Johnson were ever going to give up the subsidies. Johnson, in particular, almost automatically loses any tiny shred of credibility he has left if he does.
The Democrats picked people retiring or not having to run next year so minimal damage, leadership still gets to complain, but the pain eases.
I think it was as artfully played as possible. Kudos to Schumer and team.
Well said, Marty.
I’m glad of these slightly more positive interpretations (inc Josh Marshall, who hilzoy seems to respect), without having any idea which approach is more correct.
without having any idea which approach is more correct.
Not going to be possible to tell soon, if ever, what the actual outcomes of the various possible scenarios would have been. Lots of speculation (including mine), mostly dressed up as certainty. The most we can hope for is some 20/20 hindsight on how what was done played out.
While I appreciate the analysis of the possible / likely tactical scenarios leading up to the “deal”, the bottom line (to me) is that a lot of people are basically fucked.
The cost of private health insurance is probably going to double, or worse, for most folks that have it.
What I personally take away from all of this – and by “all of this” I mean the last decade if not longer – is that the (R) party and the conservative movement in general no longer serves the interests of the people of this country. What I see from them is cruelty and greed.
I understand that politics is the art of the possible, and that professional politicians need to do what they can in the particular circumstances they operate in.
And I’m glad that federal employees are gonna get paid.
But in the immortal words of Jerry Garcia, one way or another this darkness has got to give.
To say that people being outraged at the prospect of millions of their neighbors facing the choice of extreme financial distress or going without health insurance is “wailing and rending of garments” is dismissive and, frankly, kind of rude. People *should* be outraged.
To address GFTNC’s cite of Marshall’s piece, the thrust of what he was saying as far as I can tell is that yes, this totally sucks, but it’s nice to see the (D)’s at least try to use the limited levers of power available to them.
And I don’t disagree with that.
And like him, I’d like to see them do even more.
The (R)’s seriously deserve to be driven from the public space. They’ve become a dysfunctional, toxic cancer on the body public.
I suggest you moderate conservatives being the process of building an alternative. That, or go down with the sinking ship that is the (R) party.
It deserves to sink.
I think it would be helpful if the Democrats could figure out how to be moderate enough to allow more moderates to support them. These favorability ratings in the face of a fascist take over of government reflect how out of touch the Dems are at the other extreme. I keep looking for that party that isn’t a sinking ship and don’t see one.
As for the millions of Americans fucked by the ACA subsidies being cut, that was the plan put forward from the beginning. They were to last 5 years then phase out. That was never feasible but it was the plan bullied through Congress and part of the crowning achievement. Tough to have to live with it now. But both parties have not made them permanent for all these years so they both suck. As has the ACA structure from the beginning. It was an attempt to force employer insurance to go away and force full government controlled health care. It failed to accomplish that so its just a shitty half baked solution that is essential. Next Congress should just make the subsidies permanent and take the budget heat.
that was the plan put forward from the beginning.
Trump tax cuts were supposed to expire this year, too. At least, that was the plan from the beginning.
But, they did not. And that will add ~$4.6T to the national debt over the next 10 years.
Choices reveal character.
russell, the cave-in was so infuriating and upsetting, because of all the inevitable results you list, that I was just relieved to see that Josh Marshall nonetheless saw some positives in what had happened:
But don’t tell me nothing has changed or that this is some cataclysmic disaster. It’s not. This accomplished a lot. It demonstrated that Democrats can go to the mat when the public is behind them and not pay a political price. It dramatically damaged Donald Trump. It cued up the central arguments of the 2026 campaign. It just didn’t go far enough. The ball was fumbled at the end. So we need to demand more.
the cave-in was so infuriating and upsetting
What I find infuriating is less (much less) the cave in, and more the absolute refusal of the (R)’s to entertain an extension of the ACA subsidies.
Health care in this country is FUBAR beyond what I think folks living in any other developed country can fathom. The ACA, which was actually not original to Obama but was, in its fundamentals, a plan pioneered by Romney when he was governor of MA, was an attempt to get people insured. It is a half-assed program in many ways, because it tries to address the wishes of too many different constituencies, most definitely not to exclude private insurers. The requirements for what would be considered an acceptable plan were definitely ambitious for the US context, but would be mediocre pretty much anywhere else.
It’s a weird convoluted complicated mess, but it’s better than what we had. Believe it or not. And it cut the number of uninsured people in half.
We pay twice as much on average than any similar nation. We do not have twice the level of coverage, or twice the quality of outcomes. On the contrary.
People literally die here, literally go bankrupt here, as a result of the general shittiness of how we go about things.
Trump has an extreme personal animus toward Obama, so anything Obama did must be destroyed. Whether Obama actually did it or not, just the association of his name with the program is enough to make Trump determined to destroy it.
And Trump has nothing to replace it with. The stupid $2000 cash benefit he is talking about is (a) not gonna happen in anything like a form that will actually result in a $2000 check being cut to anybody, see also Bessent’s comments about “no taxes on tips”, and (b) would be laughably inadequate even if it were to materialize. $2000 is basically one ambulance ride and a couple of lab tests. For people in the private insurance market, it’s something like one month of premiums.
We’re extending the tax cuts, but ending the premium subsidies. And if anyone thinks the (R)’s are going to suddenly decide to extend them in December, I have a bridge I would like to sell you.
Yes to tax cuts, no to ACA subsidies, tells you everything you need to know about the state of this country right now.
Choices reveal character.