by liberal japonicus
Michael Cain, MVC (most valuable commenter) posted this comment in response to some discussion about the training agreement with Qatar that has Laura Loomer losing it.
The request for a training facility was made in 2017, shortly after the Obama administration approved selling current versions of the F-15 Strike Eagle to Qatar. Like most military base construction, there’s a ton of hoops to jump through. Not long ago the final environmental impact statement was finished, so they announced the training facility. Badly. Horribly. Using terms that don’t describe things accurately.
Singapore already has a training facility at the same air base for their F-15 pilots and mechanics. And a facility at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona for their F-16 pilots and mechanics. Both planes are supersonic; neither Singapore nor Qatar are big enough (in square miles) to support a supersonic practice range. Mountain Home is close to the Utah Test and Training Range, and Luke to the Nevada Test Site, where low-level supersonic flights are allowed. And it’s easier to house a few of the exact planes you’re buying in the US than try to ferry some in over great distances.
In keeping with my Mother-in-law defense stance, I’m thinking anything that gets Loomer inchoate with rage is ok with me, but I’d speculate that there is more to consider with the Qatar thing.
The US/Trump (hard to separate at this point), has to find a new, if not better, ally in the Middle East. Even though the process dates from Obama, and it was a really f-up of an announcement, I’m thinking that the string has played out with Israel as an ally, and linking up with Qatar does a lot of things for Trump, but also does a lot of things for (some values of) the US, so the foreign policy blob might think this is something to push. Let me try and spell those things out.
The Qatari seem to have a lot less naked ambition then the Saudis (as the guardians of Islam) or UAE (which is trying to diversify) Because Qatar is smaller, even though it is not quite as wealthy as the UAE, it has a much higher per capita GDP. That smaller population means that there are a lot fewer citizens, so political participation is even more attenuated than in SA or UAE. This is good if you want to sign agreements and great if you want to sell large arms packages.
I’d also suggest that this lack of ambition means they are much happier to be obsequious to Trump and laugh it off. The gold jet is one thing, but Trump also has real estate ventures and Qatar airways is investing heavily in the self crashing technology of Boeing. SA has to think about all the Muslims who might not have much time for the US Islamaphobia while the UAE has 7 emirates, which means decisions might be a little more difficult.
It’s a similar situation to Brunei, but with the added plus of working towards Trump’s desire for a Peace Prize, it’s hard to see how more cooperation is not going to happen. Trump’s relationship with Bibi has always been transactional, and the prospect of unending low level conflict in Gaza and Lebanon (think Northern Ireland with tabouli and hummus) is going to have Trump looking for back doors. Hooking up with the Qatari doesn’t have the downsides of dealing with hacksaw murderers or countries that are trying to get the rest of the world to fly through their airport.
I don’t know if this means ‘strategic realignment’, (whatever the F that means), but these amount to “reasons” to play footsie with Qatar, which, when added to His Orangeness’ own desires, become decisive.
(note: This post is not meant to be Qatar-boosting, I’m sure they have their own issues and problems. It’s just trying to see why the government and Trump, who stoke Islamaphobia whenever they get a chance, might jump at the chance to partner with Qatar)
And Michael has some more measured points as well, which I will put here for reference
Is there an alternative? No one else will lease us enough space for the air base we operate there. Parking a carrier in the Persian Gulf is at least impractical, and may not be able to fly everything we fly out of Qatar. Iran has already launched missiles at Qatar once because of our presence. That one was face-saving, but if you were Qatar, wouldn’t you want a “we’ve got your back” guarantee in the event of real attack? Even more pressing, perhaps, since Iran signed security agreements with Pakistan, who has nukes and ballistic delivery systems that can reach Qatar.
Trump cheerfully stokes Islamaphobia. But I doubt that he cares about the issue of religion, any religion, personally.
On the other hand, Qatar, like the Emirates and like Saudi Arabia, are totalitarian states. And Trump admires totalitarians, being a wannabe one himself. So he has no problem making deals with them. Any kind of deals — doesn’t matter if they’re in the national interest or not, as long as they benefit him personally.
One could say the same about Netanyahoo. He is on very good terms with Hungary’s Orban and the Polish far right despite both using stoking antisemitism as a standard domestic tool (and His Orangeness has begun to more or less copy-paste Orban’s anti-Soros
talking pointslies too). The important thing is that they are all fellow authoritarians.Well, at the risk of scoffing at Godwin’s law, Hitler and Stalin were buddy buddy until they weren’t. Trump gets along with other authoritarians, but that’s no guarantee they are always going to be bff.
Trump gets along with other authoritarians, but that’s no guarantee they are always going to be bff.
Trump is nobody’s friend, for an instant let alone forever. An admirer, sure. But the instant there’s an advantage to him, he’ll throw anyone under the bus. There are, after all, plenty of other authoritarians to admire and try to emulate.
Call me crazy, but the US needs to get out of the ME – it has caused a lot of terrible misery there and besides what justification is there for its presence anyway?
“what justification is there for its presence anyway?”
At this point: inertia.
Half a century ago, when we were a big oil importer and the Saudis essentially controlled the price of oil worldwide, there were obvious economic reasons to be involved there. Plus, at that time, some humanitarian reasons to defend the only democracy in the region (Israel).
But now, we’re a net oil exporter. We still import a lot, but on balance. And these days (yes, gradually over the intervening decades) Israel has ceased to be a shining example compared to its neighbors. Even though said neighbors are still pretty appalling.
In fact, from a domestic political perspective, the majority of American Jews are no longer solid Israel supporters. Netanyahu has made manifest for them just where Israel has descended to. All we need is a generation of politicians who don’t personally remember the situation from 50-60 years ago.
“what justification is there for its presence anyway?”
we’re there to keep the region stable enough to keep the world’s oil supply steady. if the supply of oil is interrupted, the entire world’s economy will suffer; nobody will be immune.
that’s why we need to find a better energy source than oil.
…what justification is there for its presence anyway?
One possibility: there are two major global shipping choke points in the region (Hormuz and Mandeb). The US is the only country with enough military power projection to force them open in the event someone tries to close them. Having a staging point for large air transport efforts related to that seems like a necessity. But this is a very complicated question.