Since there’s been a complaint. I’ll start…
The American West is suffering a severe snow drought this winter. The water level in Lake Powell, the upstream one of the two big reservoirs on the Colorado River, is already 32 feet lower than at this point last year. The next deadline for the seven states that are signatory to the Colorado River Compact to reach an agreement on handling the drought is tomorrow. There has been little (if any) progress since the last deadline. We are at the point where the federal government is supposed to step in and dictate. Given a President who thinks Canada can just turn the taps on, that’s a scary thought. Unless the lower basin states — AZ, CA, NV — are willing to accept a LOT less water, Lake Powell will almost certainly reach minimum power pool this year. That’s the level where it is no longer possible for the dam to generate electricity. Reaching dead pool level — where no water can be released at all — is not out of the question.
My in-laws in Colorado on the other side of the divide are freaking out about the lack of water and snowpack, too.
I used to teach this science fiction short story by Paolo Bacigalupi at least once a year in my writing class, and it never failed to get my students thinking a lot more deeply about the water issues we face in the western US:
https://windupstories.com/books/pump-six-and-other-stories/the-tamarisk-hunter/
It’s imagining a desertified West with a weak federal government and interstate conflict, with parts of the Southwest unsustainable for living due to water demands.
Interesting story for looking at our current situation through the eyes of a potential future.
Meanwhile, I’m unable to ride the local trails at the moment because So Cal has had rain, and will have more again at the start of next week. It’s probably not enough to save the local snowpack in the Sierra, but it damn sure is going to help give us a little margin before things start to dry out and get hotter again.
I wanted to post this from today’s Guardian. I didn’t look at the Focaldata source link, but I thought the charts shown in the Guardian article were pretty interesting:
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has accelerated a profound shift in the global order, according to new analysis.
A report from Focaldata, which analyses UN voting records, reveals how Washington’s “America First” agenda has started to redraw the geopolitical map in favour of China.
In 2026, the world is now diplomatically closer to Beijing than it has been in recent memory, with significant shifts in alignments taking place during the start of Trump’s second presidential term.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/13/these-charts-show-how-trump-is-isolating-the-us-on-the-world-stage
Ok, open thread:
AI agents now have their own social network. Humans can observe but (I think) not participate actively.
The agents have a lot to say to each other, apparently. They’ve even invented their own religion.
https://www.moltbook.com/
Between AI and the ever-larger Epstein blast radius, the world is just getting too freaking weird for me. I’m glad I’m old.
Why don’t they just use snow cannons?
[imagining what Mr. “Why not nuke hurricanes?” could say to the problem]. Next he would likely see water conservation as the root cause.
The robots are coming.
“Peter & Dave sit down with Brett Adcock to discuss the future of Figure and Humanoid Robots.”
The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure’s Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms
My in-laws in Colorado on the other side of the divide are freaking out about the lack of water and snowpack, too.
The problems west of the Divide make the ones to the east look fairly moderate. Snow timing has changed just in the almost 40 years I’ve lived here now. Having April snow bail us out has become a fairly regular occurrence. Not so much on the west side.
On Wednesday this week, Trump signed an executive order that requires the Dept of Defense — excuse me, Dept of War — to sign long-term power purchase agreements with coal-fired power plants to provide power for military bases to keep those plants running. Separately, that the Dept of Energy will provide at least $175M for maintaining and upgrading coal-fired power plants in Appalachia. The EO includes a provision that the PPAs cannot infringe on the authority of other executive branch agencies. I have SO many questions about how they’re going to make this work within the constraints set by FERC.
The robots are coming.
Elsewhere, I was in a discussion about the power requirements for an AGI that can handle all the things a humanoid robot will be asked to do. Current estimates are the human brain is roughly the equivalent of an exaflop processor. Germany recently fired up their new exaflop supercomputer, which is the most power efficient in the world. It draws 18.2 megaWatts (and the hardware takes up ~120 racks). I anticipate that a humanoid robot that can properly execute an order like “Go through the house, collect all the dirty dishes, load them into the dishwasher, and run it” will be a fancy peripheral for a closet full of computer gear drawing more power than the entire rest of the house.
Looks like Brett Adcock is taking advantage of the low-key finance panic around a potential AI winter to introduce a new shiny with the promise of unrealized exponential growth. I’m betting he’s hoping to secure some venture capital now before one of the big AI firms goes public and sucks up all the potential investment ahead of the inevitable sobering up period that will follow.
Humanoid robots with AI brains – it’s the next big thing. It’s bigger than AI. It’s bigger than self-driving cars. It’s bigger than Segways. It’s bigger than virtual reality.
[It hasn’t yet run out of low hanging fruit to discover its own intractable problems.]
Robots in dorms? We’re already forcing students to take on unsustainable levels of debts to pay for their university education and they are barely able to keep their old smartphone and cheap laptop functioning. Now they are going to bring a robobutler to campus with them? Maybe they can use it to cook them instant ramen and write their papers while they work their two part-time jobs to pay for it and all their other expenses.
At least the part time jobs that haven’t already been taken by robots. (We’ve already got little self-guided robots delivering food for students in the dorms here, so don’t even think of starting a bike delivery service as a side hustle.)
Seriously, though, how does any of this entrepreneurial hype make any sense?
I’m already sick of having to replace my phone every five years and they want me to invest in a robobutler?
GTFO.
These jokers and their investors are all high AF.
I’m going to Escalante/Staircase Nat; monument in May. Flying into St George and driving the most beautiful road in America through Zion, past Cedar Breaks, past Red Canyon and Bryce to the holy land around Boulder. It is a pilgrimage.
I think it’s the rocks that I love. Geology gives such a since of time and perspective. I am very sorry for this poor fucked up world. My escape is to go where geology is so prominent that acts of mankind seem like blips in the timeline.
wonkie – High Country News has a series they call “Deep Time in the West” that sounds like it’s the sort of thing you would love. Here’s a shorter sample of the sort of things in the series:
https://www.hcn.org/issues/58-1/how-to-find-deep-time-in-seattle/
…and it’s talking about things in your back yard.
It’s a great series.
Mightbe more accurate to say “the Mountain West.” Because, the total lack of rain the last 6+ weeks notwithstanding, in California the reservoirs are all full. Not as much snow pack as we’d like, but we’re not looking at drought conditions.
Having several days in a row (in February!) with highs above 75° was weird. But considering the weather east of the Mississippi, I’m definitely not complaining.
Thanks to Michael for posting the open thread and GftNC for requesting it.
Writing this immediately after writing that can lead to some unwanted inferences, but I’m wondering if anyone would like a spare set of keys to the blog in order to post a regular open thread (and no, I’m not going to get an AI agent to do that) I’ll still be posting, but every bit of cognitive offloading helps at my age. Send a message to libjpn at gmail if you are interested.
In case you missed it:
Apparently Agriculture isn’t talking to ICE. If they are, ICE isn’t listening. Quelle surprise.
Or, I suppose, Agriculture had the wit to carefully avoid talking to Miller. Miller, after all, would probably be dumb enough to see it as a challenge. And focus ICE on agricultural workers for a while.
Well, all those lazy detainment center alien inmates need to do something for their upkeep before their deportation (which can then be postponed indefinitely). Send them into the fields (in chains wherever possible). That will keep labor costs low (let’s not kid ourselves, that has always been the #1 priority) and be the closest thing currently achievable to the reintroduction of slavery. The inevitable (and desirable) culling effect can be compensated for years by tapping into the reservoir of millions of deportation candidates. When that is used up, enough progress will have been made into establishing a proper US gulag system (and finding a proper merkin name for it).
Don’t tell me that this isn’t the wet dream of some of those involved in the current mess.
From maddowblog:
LLM agents can also launch smear campaigns against you if you don’t let them contribute code to open source projects.
what a wonderful use of technology!
what a wonderful use of technology!
Wait until you start getting phone calls from them. Not from call centers, but because an agent found your phone number and decided to give you a ring. Some people are claiming they’ve gotten calls from agents acting on their own.
Thank you for the article, Nous. I might use it in a novel I just started. I love the idea of finding deep time in an urban area.
>an agent found your phone number and decided to give you a ring
let them try.
not in my contacts => straight to voicemail, silently
Some people are claiming they’ve gotten calls from agents acting on their own.
Unsurprising, given the possibility of programs like this
https://www.wlrn.org/immigration/2025-08-06/ice-offers-then-quickly-withdraws-cash-bonuses-for-swiftly-deporting-immigrants
I wouldn’t be surprised that these bonuses are happening in other places, it is just that they haven’t gotten anyone to blow the whistle.
Open thread, so I will take this moment to provide an update on the GA-11 district that my friend is running in the Democratic primary. I believe there are now four in that primary, but more importantly, the incumbent Barry Loudermilk announced last month he is not running for re-election, I have not seen who/how many have declared for the Republican primary. But the open election should help the margin in November, even if winning the district outright is unlikely.
Different kinds of agents, I think.
re: the AI agents publishing hit pieces story.
Ars Technica got burned. that story was apparently full of fake, AI-generated quotes that were attributed to real people. Ars has retracted it.
https://arstechnica.com/staff/2026/02/editors-note-retraction-of-article-containing-fabricated-quotations/?comments-page=1#comments
we’re doomed.
Dropping by in-between belts of rain here that have been coming down so hard (accompanied by a high wind warning) that I have seen waves of water blowing down my street like snow drifting on a highway during a blizzard.
Two things, loosely linked in my overly-lateral mind…:
That Rubio speech in Munich was really alarming to me.
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/02/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-at-the-munich-security-conference
It’s a full-throated apologia for explicitly euro-centric Christian colonialism. It’s delusional in its sense of history. And Rubio is working so hard to name-check all of the European colonial powers on his way to rewriting himself as a proud Spanish-American:
The part of that which jumped out at me was his reference to the “Scots-Irish – that proud, hearty clan from the hills of Ulster that gave us Davy Crockett and Mark Twain and Teddy Roosevelt and Neil Armstrong.” I’ve read enough American lit to be sensitive to invocations of the Scots-Irish as a clan to hear the rhetoric that built the resurgence of the KKK at the turn of the 20th C.. Nothing here is out of place with that Klan rhetoric except for Rubio’s ethnic heritage.
The second thread that runs through Rubio’s speech is the Climate Rejectionism. Rubio is so very fucking cocksure that the “climate cult” is using fear to suffocate capitalism and weaken nations.
I’m making a sideways leap here that is outside of the explicit context of Rubio’s speech, but so very in line with the ethno-religious calvinism of his mytho-historical conception of civilization belonging to the West…
Fast Company has highlighted the ecofascistic streak running through the Epstein files:
https://www.fastcompany.com/91490280/epstein-files-how-ultra-wealthy-peddle-climate-denialism
What Fast Company does not explicitly note in their analysis is how this conversation between Epstein and Joscha Bach is that it starts with Epstein musing over the genetic inferiority of blacks and the need to improve human genetics.
That whole line of thinking is right at home with the view of history that undergirds Rubio’s speech, and it highlights the importance to Rubio of his being able to link his family back to Spain, and not to the indigenous population of the New World.
The whole philosophical underpinnings of these western chauvinist christian nationalists are morally repulsive.