by liberal japonicus
Just a quick post. Been reading a bit of Xi’s purge of the military. If it weren’t so deadly serious, would be pretty hilarious. For example, we have Xi’s Military Purge Makes War Over Taiwan More Likely in the same newsfeed as Xi’s military purges will make him wary of invading Taiwan. Another theory is that the purge indicates Xi’s ruthlessness, like this Foreign Affairs article.
Zhang’s dismissal is thus the ultimate illustration of just how little trust Xi has in the PLA. As we argued in Foreign Affairs last August, “Xi wants to ensure he can employ violence with confidence, but Xi’s confidence seems to be the rarest and most precious commodity for an otherwise well-resourced military.” But Zhang’s unceremonious dismissal also illustrates the depths of Xi’s ruthlessness in managing the PLA. It is one thing for a leader to show no mercy to his enemies; it is quite another for him to be so pitiless with his friends.
Both behind a paywall, but the NY Times and Economist focus on Xi’s paranoia. Articles that focus on statements by China and avoid speculation point out that corruption is the reason that is given and note that corruption is a huge problem. The more recent have been purged because they had differences of opinions with Xi, this article talks about that.
All these stories are plausible, and they don’t necessarily cancel each other out. But I’m thinking back to another purge where a chief executive elevated a junior officer who wasn’t even in the Top 30 in seniority who then purged the armed forces of 1000 senior officers. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you George Marshall.
When President Franklin Roosevelt chose Marshall as Army Chief of Staff, he bypassed thirty-three more senior generals. Most importantly, he had rejected Marshall’s major competition for the post, Maj. Gen. Hugh Drum, who had reached that rank in 1930, held almost every top position in the Army below Chief of Staff, and in fact had been regularly recommended for that position since 1930. To those officers content with the existing system, there was no clearer signal that times had changed.
I asked Gemini to give me a list of the Chinese generals purged and their ages. We have Miao Hua (purged 9/24 age 70), He Weidong (purged 10/25 age 68), Liu Zhenli (purged 1/26, a spry 61) and the big one, Zhang Youxia (purged 1/26, age 75)
A couple of other observations. Because the improvement of Chinese economy and health came later than Japan or South Korea, I’m thinking that a 70 year old most likely chain smoking Chinese general is pretty old. Here in Japan, they’ve gotten a lot stricter with retirement ages, which is the only way they have been able to lever out some of the older employees. While Xi is 72, I wonder if one aspect of this is just Xi pulling an FDR. And given how much the world and combat has changed in the past 10 years, I wonder how much a bunch of 60 and 70 year olds would be on top of things enough. However, I’ve seen nothing like this in any commentary, which I surmise is that it can only be thought of as not being of a piece of what we do in the west. Thoughts?
Hitler, Mao, and Stalin employed similar, albeit a bit more drastic approach to reforming their officer corps. Results vary.
Yeah, there is that. But imagine if Xi is splitting the difference between those three and Marshall.
Apparently some big officer guy in Germany is forcing all the men under him to view Melania. We need to do some purging here of wackos and nutcases.
It is one thing for a leader to show no mercy to his enemies; it is quite another for him to be so pitiless with his friends.
Civilian authoritarian leaders have no friends in the military.
If it’s only a handful of military brass, then Xi isn’t going full Stalin.
Never go full Stalin.
I’m not sure Xi is exceptionally paranoid. The Chinese Communist Party has always been concerned about alternate loyalties, in business as well as in the military. Although the party may worry a bit more about the military, given how many founders of the PRC were generals.
The age of the guys being replaced at least gives a bit of plausible deniability to speculation about an ideological purge.** And it might be a matter, as suggested, of just wanting younger guys who are more up on the changing military technology. Seeing how inflexible Russian generals have been in Ukraine, and how that has played out, would be a motivator there.
** Mass corruption charges, even if warranted, could be a bad look. When Xi first came in, a “new broom” story might have played. But to have a bunch of cases only now? That could look like he wasn’t on top of things.
It’s possible that it’s as simple as something like Xi asking, “What have you learned from Russia-Ukraine that will make our takeover of Taiwan less costly?” And didn’t like the answer.