by liberal japonicus
I read the news today, oh boy…
We are left with Kremlinology, but I assume this indicates the ascendance of the Rubio/Vance faction, though I don’t think there are any people who might have suggested restraint.
"This is the Voice of Moderation. I wouldn't go so far as to say we've actually SEIZED the radio station . . . "
No, no! 2026, far more f*cked up than 2025!
I note that, not only has there been no Declaration of War. There hasn’t even been any sign of a Congressional resolution, such has provided a fig leaf for our various wars since World War II.
How long before Trump emulates his hero and calls it a Special Military Operation? Or will he go all in, and call it a spetsoperatsiya? (No chance he can manage спецопера́ция.)
I saw this in a comment on Blue Sky: Wag the Dog meets Grand Theft Oil.
International law and strategic consequences aside, they never learn:
U.S. officials ran a war game …
The results showed that chaos and violence were likely to erupt … “The thing that really worries us is that they don’t appear to have any serious plan for what happens afterward,” said Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group … Mr. Maduro’s overthrow — whether by military coup, popular uprising or U.S. military action — would shatter Venezuela’s brittle authoritarian government and produce “chaos for a sustained period of time with no possibility of ending it,”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/us/politics/venezuela-maduro-fallout-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BlA.jrlx.gJPz0yuSJoGR&smid=url-share
Consider the level of ineptitude he has demonstrated running this country. Figure that he will likely to send the worst of the worst (albeit pretty on camera) to supposedly run a country where, inevitably, none of them speak the language.
People with appropriate linguistic expertise are requested to find a word we can use when “fiasco” is just way too mild.
Well, he just executed the arrest warrant from the Southern District of NY for among other things illegal possession of firearms and intent to acquire such. Where in the constitution does it say that one needs a congressional approval for that?
Let’s see how much pocket change Maduro has to buy a pardon.
Of course, if is state charges, that would require a transfer to the feds first.
Meanwhile, His Orangeness has declared that the official government of Mexico is not actually in charge of the country but the cartels and that will have consequences soon. Hm, a few days ago he declared that Columbia would be next. Such inconsistency. Not to forget similar threats towards Iran. As usual the open support of the US and Israel for the protestors in Iran gives the radicals on both sides* the licence/license/pretense to use indiscriminate violence.
Btw, Israel is currently facing some headwind with a plan to introduce a capital crime that can only be committed by Palestinians.
China and Russia are delighted, I presume, about the current events. It’s exactly what they need for their own propaganda.
*I do not include the civilian protestors.
…for among other things illegal possession of firearms and intent to acquire such. Where in the constitution does it say that one needs a congressional approval for that?
If I recall what I’ve seen this morning correctly, the indictment that is the basis for the arrest warrant says “fully automatic firearms”. Full-auto weapons are only legal under some very narrow conditions. I don’t remember if a non-citizen can qualify. So far, at least, the Supreme Court has upheld state and federal restrictions on full-auto weapons.
Jesus. This from David Frum’s piece in the Atlantic today, lands sinisterly:
Because the anti-Trump side is preoccupied with domestic politics, it sometimes overlooks how Trump is corroding American leadership in the world. The Venezuelan regime is broadly unpopular in Latin America; its socialism of plunder has sent millions of desperate people into Colombia and other states. But U.S. intervention is deeply mistrusted in the region, associated much more closely with bringing dictators to power than with toppling them. The administration could have courted greater legitimacy for its actions by cooperating with regional partners, such as Colombia and Brazil, which have both tangled with the Maduro regime in the recent past. Refusing such cooperation is not merely an incidental vice of Trump’s foreign policy. That vice is at its core. Military action in Venezuela today without allies may prefigure action tomorrow against allies—for example, to invade and annex Greenland. The big strategic idea of the second Trump administration is that major powers are entitled to dominate their neighbors: Russia to dominate Ukraine, China to dominate its neighborhood, and the U.S. to rule over Venezuela, Greenland, Panama, and ultimately Canada—Trump’s desired “51st state.”
David Frum’s politics are not mine, but I am determined to keep an eye on rational rightwingers, in case they ever have any influence on the GOP (hard to see at this point). If anybody wants the full piece, just let me know.
In addition to Trump’s threats about crude oil resources in Venezuela, a Delaware court is nearing the end of the process to sell off Citgo’s US assets. Citgo is majority owned, indirectly, by Venezuela. Citgo’s big Gulf Coast refineries were specifically tailored to handle Venezuela’s crappy crude oil. As I understand that case, much of the proceeds from the sale will go to the companies whose Venezuelan assets were nationalized. None of the big oil majors bid on the Citgo assets. You have to wonder if any of them will be interested in taking on the billions of dollars of deferred maintenance the oil infrastructure in Venezuela requires.
Michael Cain, I thought the snark about ‘just executing a warrant’ was obvious enough. The pretense, whether it was cocaine and submachine guns or counterfeit aspirin and single shot soft air rifles, is simply ridiculous. They could as well justify their actions with him jaywalking, not paying for a bus ticket or parking violations. It was an act of war without war being declared or congress even discussing anything that could serve as a legal pretense. And it was another test case what he can get away with. Will he try a fait accompli with Greenland next? I think that has ceased to be a mere academic question after to-day. I think it would actually take less military effort to sweep in and take over than what they did in Caracas.
Such a strange state of paralysis we are in as a nation. The Democrats cannot keep up with the galloping norm-crushing or find any path of resistance that is not through the slow crawl of the courts. The media is hapless, and hopeless, and toothless, and hamstrung by oligarchic editorial capture. That leaves civil resistance, but it doesn’t seem like we are really ready to hit the streets and risk an authoritarian backlash and the suspension of habeas corpus that we know the authoritarians are jonezing to try out.
Every last bit of this could be ground to a halt if the milquetoast Republicans who have “raised concerns” would break ranks and side with the Dems to restore accountability. I don’t see that happening. The GOP has so thoroughly demonized (literally) the Dems that I can’t see any of them choosing to work with the Enemies of Christendom.
So very fucked up.
@Hartmut, if Western Europe has really reached that sort of conclusion, that the US executive branch (with cover from the judicial) can do as it pleases, w/o any attention to even the niceties of form, well… There’s three more years before control of the executive can legally change hands. I would suggest Europe thinks hard about taking action:
And part of me also thinks, don’t ask me to constrain the Trumpists overseas, I’ve got a civil war to fight.
“Well, he just executed the arrest warrant from the Southern District of NY for among other things illegal possession of firearms and intent to acquire such.”
What jurisdiction does the SDNY have over the president of another country?
What jurisdiction does the SDNY have over the president of another country?
Well, they can apply to have him extradited. (Good luck with that.)
Or, if he travels to the US without diplomatic immunity, they could have him arrested while he was here. Whether being kidnapped and brought into the US counts is dubious. Certainly having the US government do the kidnapping, as in this case, seems like cause to throw the case out of court. Even before the (low) quality of the actual case is addressed.
What jurisdiction does the SDNY have over the president of another country?
According to SCOTUS it has none over the US president. Let’s see what 5-dimensional pretzel the gang of 6 will produce about this (if it ever goes there).
Btw, it’s quite ironic that the case is given to a blue state court that His Orangeness used to constantly demonize for ‘going after’ Him.
Just heard on the German radio that Rubio is now talking openly about copying the Caracas action in Cuba and Nicaragua and justifying it with those states conducting warfare against the US by swamping the country with immigrants.*
Well, in that case he should of course get immediately arrested and treated as a hostile agent who wormed himself into a high position in government (they used to hang such people in the past, didn’t they?).
More seriously, those potential targets would be well advised to bolster the air and ground defenses around their seats of government (and I assume they are already at it).
*that would serve, I assume, as the next excuse not to involve congress. If there already is a war, congress does not need to declare it, so His Orangeness is free to do as he wants.
I see the our Secretary of State is already talking about doing something similar in Cuba (totally no surprise) and Nicaragua. Perhaps he wants to move quickly, to get it done before it becomes obvious what a total cock-up this is.
I suppose the Canadians and the Danes feel some temporary relief that the crazies are still looking south for the moment.
The Danes, and the Canadians better get to work on a nuclear deterrent, and hope it’s ready in time.
For that matter, the Dutch better also do so, since the ICC is on their land.
I suppose the Canadians and the Danes feel some temporary relief that the crazies are still looking south for the moment.
Be careful, it could just be a clever (good joke!) distraction, so the strike will come as a surprise.
Again more seriously: It was no joke about other threatened states likely ramping up air and ground defenses around their seats of government. But that could serve as justification to not go for abduction next time but outright assassination, if need be by air dropped ordnance.
His Orangeness is said to already have phoned Maduro’s temporary successor and it is strongly implied that this included death threats in case of lack of unconditional surrender to His demands.
Two articles about the relationship to my neighborhood
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/01/04/u-s-action-in-venezuela-risks-encouraging-chinas-claims-taiwan-still-not-the-target/
https://www.firstpost.com/world/venezuela-today-taiwan-tomorrow-trumps-maduro-move-hands-china-cheap-ammunition-for-taipei-strike-13965411.html
And this very interesting recollection by Greg Palast. A bit heavy on the conspiracy theory stuff, but one wonders.
https://www.gregpalast.com/when-venezuelas-president-delcy-rodriguez-banged-on-my-door-at-2am/
My expectations of the Trump administration were of course low, but I did expect at least a token gesture of resistance from the EU and the UK. Instead, they all folded immediately: Kallas, von der Leyen, Macron, Starmer and Merz. It is beyond belief how pathetic they are
“The Danes, and the Canadians better get to work on a nuclear deterrent, and hope it’s ready in time.”
France sent a nuclear sub to a port in the Maritimes back in the early days of Trump II. Both France and Canada are NATO nations.
As are we, for that matter. So who knows what was intended, or how any of it would play out. But my understanding is that it was… unusual for a French nuke to show up in North America .
Trump is basically flipping the tables. Who knows where it will all end up.
Over at BJ, Adam Silverman is reminding everyone that both the Greenland nonsense and the Venezuela idea were planted by the GRU.
https://balloon-juice.com/2026/01/04/war-for-ukraine-day-1410-and-now-we-know-where-the-venezuela-idea-came-from/
None of these idiots should ever have been given security clearance. They are entirely too easily manipulated.
nous: an excellent reminder from Adam Silverman. I should check BJ more often…
Regarding the feeble EU reponse:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/05/donald-trump-coup-venezuela-break-rules-regret
And an interesting take connecting it to the EU’s own immigration policies:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/05/donald-trump-coup-venezuela-break-rules-regret
I’m the first one to wrap myself in a blue flag with golden stars – in fact, that was my Facebook profile picture for a few years after Brexit – but goodness, we need new leaders.
There hasn’t even been any sign of a Congressional resolution
Does 21 USC 960a count? I mean, Maduro is a narcoterrorist and was illegally importing cocaine. Even Biden agreed that he was a threat to the US, raising the reward for Maduro’s capture to $25M. (query: Does Trump get that reward now?).
Harmut’s comment was snark, but I’m being serious: if you have a de facto head of state that is illegitimate, also a narcoterrorist, no extradition treaty, refuses to stop drug trafficking after warning, is very badly dressed, etc., does extraditing by force require independent Congressional approval? If this was some prolonged military action, I get it. This was surgical (so far).
If I recall what I’ve seen this morning correctly, the indictment that is the basis for the arrest warrant says “fully automatic firearms”.
From what I read in the indictment (superseding from 2020; I think they are basically the same), the “full auto” counts are dependent on counts 1 and 2 (narcoterrorism and importation of cocaine). So it’s not like the grounds are just “you have machine guns.”
the galloping norm-crushing
I think Panama, Grenada and Libya show this to not be so norm-crushing as some might think. On top of the drugs, the Chinese, Russian, Cuban and Iranian ties, 8 million people having left (more than left Syria), and the elections give ample reason to want Maduro gone. Not that “wanting him gone” is justification for a forced extradition, but there is much more going on here.
Over at BJ, Adam Silverman is reminding everyone that both the Greenland nonsense and the Venezuela idea were planted by the GRU.
Really? The US has wanted Greenland for a long time. We occupied it during WWII invoking the Monroe Doctrine. And comparing Venezuela to Ukraine at this point is truly balloon juice.
That being said, time will tell. It’s what happens now that gives me more concern. Venezolanos are celebrating but cautious about what comes next too.
China and Russia are delighted, I presume, about the current events. It’s exactly what they need for their own propaganda.
Sure, for their own, internal propaganda. But from a strategic standpoint, the US action should counter not only China and Russia’s strategic aims in Venezuela, but Iran’s and Cuba’s too. The success of the mission in light of Russian air defense has to be taken into account. If this ends up toppling the Cuban or Iranian government by domino effect, who is going to cry? Shoot, it already caused the illustrious Gov. Waltz to stop his reelection campaign, lol.
And comparing Venezuela to Ukraine at this point is truly balloon juice.
This ignores the testimony of Fiona Hill during the hearings for Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. She is a deeply impressive person who had been at the time Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for European and Russian Affairs on Trump’s National Security Council.
https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2019/11/FionaHill-compressed.pdf
Just make a search box, and enter “Venezuela”, and it goes straight there, including Ukraine. Adam Silverman is right, and so is nous. To have US patsies for Putin in position to be manipulated by him into breaching international law, and talk about taking the territory of NATO allies, is a truly extraordinary development. O brave new world, that has such American politicians in it!
bc – Really? The US has wanted Greenland for a long time. We occupied it during WWII invoking the Monroe Doctrine. And comparing Venezuela to Ukraine at this point is truly balloon juice.
Yes, really. The Danes were the ones that released the image of the forged letter, purportedly from Greenland but actually from the GRU, sent to Tom Cotton suggesting that Greenland was primed to join the US.
As for the Venezuela/Ukraine swap suggestion, that info comes from Fiona Hill’s sworn testimony in 2019.
The best propaganda ops are always woven into historical contexts and appeal to the known biases of the targets.
The success of the mission in light of Russian air defense has to be taken into account.
According to former ambassador Ken Fairfax on BSKY, the Russians pulled their people ten days before the US op. Make of that what you will.
This ignores the testimony of Fiona Hill during the hearings for Trump’s first impeachment in 2019.
Her testimony was not that the Trump Administration was actually considering a Ukraine/Venezuela swap, but to the contrary. She was charged with telling the Russians to (her words) “knock this off.” And she testified that the Russians were floating this in the press, not directly to the administration. Nowhere (that I saw) does it indicate Trump was actually thinking about the swap.
I don’t disagree that Fiona Hill seems like an impressive person. Citing her testimony to say “Trump got the idea from the Russians” has no basis in fact.
According to former ambassador Ken Fairfax on BSKY, the Russians pulled their people ten days before the US op. Make of that what you will.
It was reported before Christmas that the Russians were pulling their people, but I remember it being diplomats mostly. And there was plenty of saber-rattling by Trump, not to mention the buildup of force. They had already pulled a lot of military personnel earlier, from what I remember, but I always thought that was because of Ukraine. Still, they didn’t pull the air defense systems they sold to Maduro. I’m sure the nations relying on Russian air defense are making of that what they will. See here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/01/05/venezuela-raid-weak-russian-air-defences-maduro-caracas/
Now maybe it was turned off and the US flipped some people. I don’t know.
Re Greenland, I’m confused. That GRU letter is dated October 23, 2019, right? And addressed to Cotton? Cotton had already been advocating for the US to purchase Greenland in August before that letter:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/26/opinion/politics/greenland-trump.html
And as Cotton notes in his op ed, Trump had expressed interest to purchase Greenland before the op ed. So how exactly did the fake letter give Trump the idea? Am I missing something?
As Fiona Hill testified, the Russians like to disrupt. That’s all this letter was.
Her testimony was not that the Trump Administration was actually considering a Ukraine/Venezuela swap
Her testimony was in 2019, and she left her job with Trump 10 days before his famous “perfect” phone conversation with Zelensky unsuccessfully seeking help against Biden. Since then, Russia has invaded Ukraine, Trump has “mystifyingly” favoured Russia over Ukraine at almost every point, and has now invaded Venezuela and kidnapped its appalling president, while claiming the US is “running” Venezuela.
Citing her testimony to say “Trump got the idea from the Russians” has no basis in fact.
Hmm. An interesting observation.
And what Ambassador Ken Fairfax actually said was “It’s interesting that Russia withdrew all of its personnel from Venezuela exactly 14 days before Trump’s invasion. China didn’t withdraw their personnel. Cuba didn’t withdraw theirs. Just Russia. It is almost as if someone called Putin to warn him what’s up as part of a quid pro quo. Not almost.”
To quote Monty Python, “a nod is as good as a wink to a blind bat”. Or, to put it in a more pedestrian fashion “there are none so blind as those who will not see”.