by liberal japonicus
As we crawl to the end of the year, maybe a word about epiphanies. I assume that it must be the same as Hemingway’s line about going bankrupt.
Ephiphany, which is usually celebrated on the Sunday between Jan 2nd and Jan 8th, is from the Greek epiphaneia and means manifestation or revelation, and I’m hoping that we are rolling to an epiphany of sorts with Trump, which is most likely an unwarranted optimism on my part. Let me make a list of signs for you to discuss, dismiss, or add to.
I mentioned Jmail , the site that takes all of the email from jeevacation@gmail.com that was incorporated in the Epstein files. One interesting feature is that if you click on the Starred in the left, you can see the emails that other readers have starred to get an idea of what is attracting attention.
I also posted about the Susie Wiles interview in Vanity Fair and Sidney Blumenthal’s piece dissecting it, but this Guardian piece goes a bit further, suggesting that it all points to Wiles trying to slowly step away from the crime scene.
The leaks by FBI agents about Kash Patel’s demands are small, but seem appropriately epiphanic.
Perhaps I’m falling for that conspiracy mindset, taking unrelated stories to weave them into something that I want to see, but I thought this piece about the possibility that there has been so little turnover because Trump can’t expose himself in confirmation hearings might be another sign.
Then, of course, there is the mess of RFK Jr., which is sort of the frogs swarming over everything and everyone breaking out in boils, if we want to get biblical.
The Trump-Kennedy Center, need I say more?
Anymore epiphanic stuff to share?
I’d say the biggest epiphantic sign is that the cultists, while they don’t appear to be leaving the faith, are much less willing to flaunt it. The signs and banners and hats are far less in evidence than they a year ago, or during his first term. Might it be that they are, perhaps not entirely consciously, preparing themselves to bury their past?
P.S. I’m not sure the lack of turnover in Trump’s cabinet reflects any concern about getting replacements approved. That would require a firmer grasp of reality than we see elsewhere. Instead, I think it reflects the fact that they are all shameless toadies who constantly tell him how wonderful he is, and feed him fantasies about how successfully they are doing what he wants. As opposed to last term, where there was a lot of turnover from people telling him No . . . and failing to lie about what was actually going on.
There were lots of disparaging comments, during the first term, about the so-called “adults in the room.” Mostly reflecting the view that they didn’t seem to be stopping him from creating one mess after another. Having now seen what happens without them, it’s pretty apparent that a lot of restraint was, in fact, happening. It seems like some apoligies are in order. Not that I expect to see any.
I do also think his instability/mental deterioration is becoming more apparent. Not to mention some ideological splintering within MAGA, like the Shapiro – Tucker Carlson row, and the Marjorie Taylor Green defection, and Trump’s response to that, and the murder of the Reiners. Although why anybody would be surprised at the latter, given one of his first reactions to 9/11 was to crow about his building now being the tallest in NYC, is anyone’s guess.
I’d like to think his comments at the Zelensky press conference about how Putin wants the best for Ukraine, and wants Ukraine to do well, and Zelensky’s facial expression, may have cut through with some sane and politically engaged right wingers, as well as the fact that Trump had phone calls with Putin both before and after the Zelensky meeting, but I guess that’s an idle hope. People sane enough to see it, and with enough political influence to do anything about it, still seem in vanishingly short supply.
One more year. After the midterms, which Republicans are likely to lose, he’ll be a lame duck president for real.
I think MTG’s response to Trump’s comments at the Kirk Memorial are telling. It’s not the nail in the MAGA coffin, but it may signal an inflection point for a lot of people as they start looking to shift their allegiance. I’m reminded of “The Awakening Conscience” by William Holman Hunt:
I expect that for a great many of the christian nationalist MAGA faithful we are going to see them start to think that The Ancient Orange One is King Saul, tormented by spirits, prone to fits, and abandoned by God, and see them turn instead to the Sofaphiliac as King David. Couchie has received Erica Kirk’s anointment and has the trust of Sharkey’s Hobbits. He Who Slumbers may not see out his term if the Project 2025 wing think they can Amendment 25 him and cut their losses.
If they do decide to go that way, good luck on keeping that lightning in the bottle. Vance is a pail of lukewarm dog vomit and naked ambition. I don’t think he can hold any of it together for long.
What still terrifies me, though, is what comes after. I’m not convinced that the US Constitution can keep this place running with just another patch. This is a really risky and consequential moment and I don’t think the cultists are done yet.
I completely agree on Vance. To hold their current coalition together post-Trump, they would need a figure who, among other things, is a showman like Trump is. Vance not only isn’t, he not even vaguely close. And while there are doubtless would-be demagogues out there, there isn’t one who seems likely to be the necessary unifying figure.
I see how the US and its Constitution could continue (with some modifications/Amendments, but recognizably a continuation). What my imagination is not adequate for is envisioning a path from here to there.
The Christianist nationalists can get pushed back into their former condition of minimal relevance. Just one more group of wierdos in a country which has long had a plethora of them. That’s not the real challenge.
While other countries manage just fine with multiple parties, the US seems to favor a two party norm. The parties don’t have to agree on much policy-wise, just be willing to accept that the majority of voters will sometimes favor one and other times the other. (That’s a big piece of what is driving the Republicans into irrelevance: the voters overall like pieceful transfers of power. )
A third party can arise, but in a relatively short time it will either replace one of the two major parties or join the ranks of the essentially irrelevant minor parties (think Greens or American Independence Party). How does that happen? It’s difficult to say, since there are only a couple of examples:
I doubt that the current Republican Party is salvageable. But will a new party arise (probably including many ex-Republicans, like the Whigs in the early Republican Party)? I’m not seeing any sign of that, at least not yet. Or will the Democrats split, and on what basis? I’m not seeing any glimmers of that either. There are places (e.g. California) where the Republicans have embraced irrelevance for decades, but the Democrats here are still divided by individual personalities, rather than by anything resembling groups.
As I say, I can see something of where we could get to, but not how to get there.
On the other hand, where else we might go is not obvious either. The mechanics are clear — the Constitution provides for piecemeal amendment or complete replacement. But what would get hammered out in a Constitutional Convention, should we go that route? And how would it be able to satisfy the majority required to ratify the new one? “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”
I’m getting to the end of The Reich’s Orchestra, (I’m going to wait until after New Year’s to check out the documentary link novakant sent me, as you get a 12 day trial, so I want to have some free time to listen to as much as I can) but one ‘bright’ spot is this
Hartmann recognised the orchestra’s post-war ethical dilemma: the Berlin Philharmonic was to an exceptional extent cherished, groomed and protected by the Nazi regime. That the Berlin Philharmonic was, at the same time, not a Nazi orchestra, by spirit, constitution, or membership, was also true. The Berlin Philharmonic, however, did not have to be a Nazi orchestra to serve its purpose to the regime—in fact, it was desirable that it not be. And the regime went to great lengths to protect and promote the exceptionality of its prized musical asset.
The current crew doesn’t understand quality and ability, and everything is subsumed under fealty to Trump, and that absence of taste should make things go incrementally faster.
through an Overton lens, Trump’s increasingly-insane inanity will make any Bush-style Republican very attractive in 2028. a white man who isn’t a psychotic narcissist will be soberly declared, by once-again-endorsement-friendly editorials everywhere, to be the kind of stable genius we all need. the press will wet themselves in bliss at the idea of the GOP returning to a normal balance.
the Dem base will have picked someone who promises to litigate all the Trump era scandals that the press is currently ignoring. the country will not be interested.
GOP by 15%.
Of course not. That’s why McCain won in 2008. Well, that and the Democratic base picked a candidate they should have known was unelectable.
/s
One thing I’ve noticed in myself is that I’m far less bothered by the dwindling number of vocal tRump supporters I see, be they IRL or on social media. They aren’t the threat they used to be, at least as I perceive them. I almost pity them now, like they’re clinging to a dying mythology. My meaner impulse is to laugh at them.
I know that’s not the most enlightening thing to write on the subject, but it’s my own subjective synthesis of everything I’m seeing. It feels different than it used to.
>Well, that and the Democratic base picked a candidate they should have known was unelectable.
did Obama promise to go after the sins the Dem base was sure Bush committed Bush’s?
will a Democrat get through the primaries who says he won’t spend every second chasing Trump’s crimes?
“through an Overton lens, Trump’s increasingly-insane inanity will make any Bush-style Republican very attractive in 2028. a white man who isn’t a psychotic narcissist will be soberly declared, by once-again-endorsement-friendly editorials everywhere, to be the kind of stable genius we all need. the press will wet themselves in bliss at the idea of the GOP returning to a normal balance.”
This is my fear. And I don’t think the Republicans under that hypothetical person will be different in substance than they are not. In degree, yes. Substance, no. And the substance will be gerrymandering, election rigging, tax cuts for the rich and screw everyone else, pro-corporate power and anti-public interest legislation, and more Federalist SOciety ideologues in judgeships as they go full steam ahead on the plant to turn the US into a one-party oligarchy and only looks like a representative democracy.
I don’t watch TV news so I don’t know how far the regression has gone, but CBS, aka Pravda West, has had the opposite of an epiphany.
The msm let themselves get used by Republicans to promote slanders, lies, fake investigations, all kinds of bullshit until part way through Trump’s first term when they finally figures out that they needed to be more than a megaphone. An epiphany! They needed to actually do their jobs.
But CBS seems to have regressed: DHS conducting massive investigation after viral video alleges fraud at Minnesota day care centers | Watch
CBS is collaborating by spreading Republican lies. The coverage consists of extensive repetitions of Republican false allegations, followed by a brief partial rebuttal, followed by horse race coverage of how the false allegations might affect Walz. At no point to they explain that the Biden admin already did a massive investigation and achieved around 50 indictments. A viewer would come away with the impression that Minn had done nothing about the fraud, that DHS deserved all the credit and that opps! a Republican blogger was mistaken about the Somali day care centers. Not one word said about the devastating flood of hate now directed at those centers.
And, of course, not one word about the organized hate campaign now underway by Republicans against all Somalis.
Fuck you, CBS.
Attractive, but likely not to the current base of the (R) party.
Is there a cadre of old school (R)’s ready and able to turn the GOP around in 2008? I don’t see it. I don’t know how they would do it.
I’m also not sure the (D)’s will go for someone who leads with “we’re gonna go after all of the Trump era malefactors”. Too divisive!! Can’t have that!!
My epiphany of the last year (or 10 years) is how durable the paranoid style continues to be. Drive a stake through it’s heart, it just keeps coming back for more.
A happy and healthy new year to everybody here! Please God let it get better……
Is there a cadre of old school Republicans? I’m sure there is. Willing to turn the GOP around? That, too. Able? I beg leave to doubt it. Like russell, I don’t see how anyone could.
The closest I can picture is explicitly splitting the party (with the old school guys willing to abandon the name, which I expect them to hate). But that would leave them with too small a base to compete effectively. They would do better to wait for the Democrats to fission, and join one of the pieces. But that’s not a turn-around.
In the spirit of moving toward whatever epiphanies await us, good or ill, I wish all here a happy, peaceful, healthy New Year.
Here’s a lovely old chestnut. I probably post this every year, but it’s a personal favorite, so I hope you will forgive me.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xQXU2PIgreM
That’s absolutely beautiful, russell. I don’t know if you’ve posted it before, but IMO you could post it every new year’s day. By the end, I was truly emotional.
I think I’ve found the source of the “comment links are not changing color if you’ve previously clicked on them”
style.min.css
needs to have an addition:
a:visited{color:red}
(or some other color). It seems that otherwise links, whether visited or not, get whatever color is inherited. Just tried with a local copy of the OW main page, and it works.
BTW, you can treat my comment as an evidence for “one bugfix/person/year”.
Happy New Year one and all!
style.min.css
needs to have an addition:
a:visited{color:red}
Style.min.css is a WordPress core file. There are two disadvantages to changing it: (1) changing core files occasionally has unpleasant side effects, and (2) the change will be overwritten every time a WordPress update is applied. There are better places to put additional CSS.
Michael, now is the time to let you know that I continue to find State of the Discussion extremely useful, especially if a lot has happened since I last looked. Thank you!
Than you, Russell. That was lovely. You all might find this comforting: Turning Toward the Morning
“If I had one thing to give you, I would tell you one more time that the world is always turning toward the morning.”
I like to think that there’s an approaching epiphany with respect to electricity, as they realize the administration doesn’t care at all about higher residential power rates, they only care about forcing the use of fossil fuels, denying the use of renewables, and making the generic ratepayer foot the bill for all the (risky) new generating capacity that will have to be built for the AI data centers.
I haven’t been able to get that wonderful version of Auld Lang Syne out of my mind. And since the line in the original Burns poem is actually:
“For auld lang syne my jo” (i.e. not “my dear”), where jo means dear or darling, I’ve been obsessively remembering my favourite Burns poem John Anderson my jo, John, and how I read it to my beloved father (who adored Burns) when he was appallingly felled by a stroke, and how I could hardly get through it without my voice badly breaking. Much as I could hardly get through Danny Boy when I sang it to him during that time.
John Anderson my jo, John,
When we were first acquent;
Your locks were like the raven,
Your bony brow was brent;
But now your brow is beld, John,
Your locks are like the snaw;
But blessings on your frosty pow,
John Anderson my Jo.
John Anderson my jo, John,
We clamb the hill the gither;
And mony a canty day, John,
We’ve had wi’ ane anither:
Now we maun totter down, John,
And hand in hand we’ll go;
And sleep the gither at the foot,
John Anderson my Jo.
There is a version of Eddie Reader singing this on Youtube, but I don’t think it is nearly as good as some of her other versions of Burns’s poems, and certainly not as moving as russell’s posted Auld Lang Syne.
Will His Orangeness compare his dict-napping in Venezuela to Israel’s capture of Eichmann given that he in essence accuses Maduro constantly of murdering millions of US citizens (per year or per month?)?
I guess now we have the answer to the 2025 Question of the Year:
Which will Trump invade first, Canada or Greenland?
I had that epiphany in 1968. The GOP took up the Lost Cause banner and combined it with their feed the rich ideology to embark on the road to fascism. Protestors gunned down at Kent State, now Minneapolis. I don’t know about you, but I detect a pattern.
wjca, The original plans to acquire Greenland was to put Canada into a pincer between newly acquired Alaska, the US and Greenland and then to take over either by persuasive coercion or outright violence.
At the moment I do not believe Canada to be in play yet. Once an annexation of Greenland leads to the break-up of NATO, Canada would probably be seen as an easier target than now.
Once an annexation of Greenland leads to the break-up of NATO, Canada would probably be seen as an easier target than now.
The US and Canada have mutual defense agreements that pre-date NATO and are still in place. NORAD, for example, falls under those agreements rather than NATO. If the US leaves NATO, I wonder if Canada will withdraw from the bilateral arrangements.
If the US leaves NATO, I wonder if Canada will withdraw from the bilateral arrangements.
Which would deliver the pretense for the intended annexation.
It’s insane but that’s the kind of logic I expect those people.
Btw, I do not believe for a moment that Canada in that scenario would receive statehood since that would almost guarantee a Dem takeover of both house and senate.