State of the Discussion

"Maduro is a narcoterrorist and was illegally importing cocaine"

What acts of terrorism has he committed?

"Panama, Grenada and Libya show this to not be so norm-crushing as some might think"

Precedent does not equal norm. Also, FWIW those are also not the greatest moments in our history.

"The US has wanted Greenland for a long time."

It's not our fucking island. Full stop.

GftNC,
Re editing: I have found that, once I post something, I can tap on the text of the post and then (but only then) a little gear wheel appears at the bottom right of the post. Click on that to get to edit mode.

It’s always about “what happens next”, right? I have similar feelings about Venezuela, but to a lesser extent.

Why to a lesser extent? It appear that there was little forethought on this action. The administration is generally incompetent (even worse than Trump's first) and is terrible with follow-through once it becomes apparent that whatever they're trying to do is actually difficult or complicated.

DOGE? The healthcare plan from over a decade ago? Trump's infrastructure bill? Ending the hostilities in Ukraine and Gaza? Inflation? Rounding up all the actual violent criminals in the country illegally?

All they seem good at is breaking things.

wjca:

The question was whether Trump got the idea to "purchase Greenland" from the GRU letter, not whether there is justification for simply taking it over. That's the context of my response. As a 3rd generation Alaskan (currently living outside my home state), I'd point out that William Seward tried to buy Greenland (and Iceland too). At one point he wanted to bring Canada into the US. So maybe Trump got both ideas from Seward? There were other attempts in the 20th century, (including Truman, I believe) and the US refused to leave after WWII due to the Cold War. But I don't support taking over Greenland by force over the Denmark's objection.

TP: As I recall, I had mixed feelings about Libya, but more practical than whether or not the President had the authority. It's always about "what happens next", right? I have similar feelings about Venezuela, but to a lesser extent. But I am concerned about not leaving the Venezuelans worse off due to a power vacuum than before. I don't like how Trump is talking about Machado nor do I like leaving the illegitimate VP in power. I am glad that Venezuela has a fighting chance to be free.

bc: I think Panama, Grenada and Libya show this to not be so norm-crushing as some might think.

I don't have the time to look through the archive for bc's comments on "Panama, Grenada, and Lybia", and the first two (Panama, 1989, Poppy Bush; Grenada, 1983, Saint Reagan) were too long ago anyway, but surely bc was as supportive of Obama on Libya as he appears to be of He, Trump on Venezuela. Right?

I mean, a consistent attitude toward "norms" for the President of the United States, however wrongheaded, is one thing. A variable definition of "norms" based on who happens to be president at the moment would be a different, and more worrisome, thing.

--TP

The US has wanted Greenland for a long time. We occupied it during WWII invoking the Monroe Doctrine. 

That's kind of a stretch. During World War II, you will recall that Denmark had been conquered the Nazi Germany. Holding Greenland was merely keeping the Germans from establishing a base from which to attack the North Atlantic convoys. When Denmark was liberated, Greenland immediately returned to Danish rule. The US maintains bases there still, but it has bases on lots of countries around the world.

Certainly Greenland still has strategic value. But while there have been contingency plans to keep it out of hostile hands for a century, that's quite a ways from just flat out wanting to take it over. (I'm not willing to concede Trump might be capable of strategic thinking to the point of considering Denmark a future hostile power. No matter how much he bad-mouths the EU.)

Re Greenland, I'm confused. That GRU letter is dated October 23, 2019, right? And addressed to Cotton? Cotton had already been advocating for the US to purchase Greenland in August before that letter:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/26/opinion/politics/greenland-trump.html

And as Cotton notes in his op ed, Trump had expressed interest to purchase Greenland before the op ed. So how exactly did the fake letter give Trump the idea? Am I missing something?

As Fiona Hill testified, the Russians like to disrupt. That's all this letter was.

bc - Really? The US has wanted Greenland for a long time. We occupied it during WWII invoking the Monroe Doctrine. And comparing Venezuela to Ukraine at this point is truly balloon juice.

Yes, really. The Danes were the ones that released the image of the forged letter, purportedly from Greenland but actually from the GRU, sent to Tom Cotton suggesting that Greenland was primed to join the US.

As for the Venezuela/Ukraine swap suggestion, that info comes from Fiona Hill's sworn testimony in 2019.

The best propaganda ops are always woven into historical contexts and appeal to the known biases of the targets.

The success of the mission in light of Russian air defense has to be taken into account.

According to former ambassador Ken Fairfax on BSKY, the Russians pulled their people ten days before the US op. Make of that what you will.

There hasn’t even been any sign of a Congressional resolution

Does 21 USC 960a count? I mean, Maduro is a narcoterrorist and was illegally importing cocaine. Even Biden agreed that he was a threat to the US, raising the reward for Maduro's capture to $25M. (query: Does Trump get that reward now?).

Harmut's comment was snark, but I'm being serious: if you have a de facto head of state that is illegitimate, also a narcoterrorist, no extradition treaty, refuses to stop drug trafficking after warning, is very badly dressed, etc., does extraditing by force require independent Congressional approval? If this was some prolonged military action, I get it. This was surgical (so far).

If I recall what I’ve seen this morning correctly, the indictment that is the basis for the arrest warrant says “fully automatic firearms”.

From what I read in the indictment (superseding from 2020; I think they are basically the same), the "full auto" counts are dependent on counts 1 and 2 (narcoterrorism and importation of cocaine). So it's not like the grounds are just "you have machine guns."

the galloping norm-crushing

I think Panama, Grenada and Libya show this to not be so norm-crushing as some might think. On top of the drugs, the Chinese, Russian, Cuban and Iranian ties, 8 million people having left (more than left Syria), and the elections give ample reason to want Maduro gone. Not that "wanting him gone" is justification for a forced extradition, but there is much more going on here.

Over at BJ, Adam Silverman is reminding everyone that both the Greenland nonsense and the Venezuela idea were planted by the GRU.

Really? The US has wanted Greenland for a long time. We occupied it during WWII invoking the Monroe Doctrine. And comparing Venezuela to Ukraine at this point is truly balloon juice.

That being said, time will tell. It's what happens now that gives me more concern. Venezolanos are celebrating but cautious about what comes next too.

China and Russia are delighted, I presume, about the current events. It’s exactly what they need for their own propaganda.

Sure, for their own, internal propaganda. But from a strategic standpoint, the US action should counter not only China and Russia's strategic aims in Venezuela, but Iran's and Cuba's too. The success of the mission in light of Russian air defense has to be taken into account. If this ends up toppling the Cuban or Iranian government by domino effect, who is going to cry? Shoot, it already caused the illustrious Gov. Waltz to stop his reelection campaign, lol.

"The Danes, and the Canadians better get to work on a nuclear deterrent, and hope it’s ready in time."

France sent a nuclear sub to a port in the Maritimes back in the early days of Trump II. Both France and Canada are NATO nations.

As are we, for that matter. So who knows what was intended, or how any of it would play out. But my understanding is that it was... unusual for a French nuke to show up in North America .

Trump is basically flipping the tables. Who knows where it will all end up.

Two articles about the relationship to my neighborhood

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/01/04/u-s-action-in-venezuela-risks-encouraging-chinas-claims-taiwan-still-not-the-target/

https://www.firstpost.com/world/venezuela-today-taiwan-tomorrow-trumps-maduro-move-hands-china-cheap-ammunition-for-taipei-strike-13965411.html

And this very interesting recollection by Greg Palast. A bit heavy on the conspiracy theory stuff, but one wonders.
https://www.gregpalast.com/when-venezuelas-president-delcy-rodriguez-banged-on-my-door-at-2am/

The Danes, and the Canadians better get to work on a nuclear deterrent, and hope it's ready in time.
For that matter, the Dutch better also do so, since the ICC is on their land.

Just heard on the German radio that Rubio is now talking openly about copying the Caracas action in Cuba and Nicaragua and justifying it with those states conducting warfare against the US by swamping the country with immigrants.*
Well, in that case he should of course get immediately arrested and treated as a hostile agent who wormed himself into a high position in government (they used to hang such people in the past, didn't they?).
More seriously, those potential targets would be well advised to bolster the air and ground defenses around their seats of government (and I assume they are already at it).

*that would serve, I assume, as the next excuse not to involve congress. If there already is a war, congress does not need to declare it, so His Orangeness is free to do as he wants.

What jurisdiction does the SDNY have over the president of another country?

Well, they can apply to have him extradited. (Good luck with that.)

Or, if he travels to the US without diplomatic immunity, they could have him arrested while he was here. Whether being kidnapped and brought into the US counts is dubious. Certainly having the US government do the kidnapping, as in this case, seems like cause to throw the case out of court. Even before the (low) quality of the actual case is addressed.

@Hartmut, if Western Europe has really reached that sort of conclusion, that the US executive branch (with cover from the judicial) can do as it pleases, w/o any attention to even the niceties of form, well... There's three more years before control of the executive can legally change hands. I would suggest Europe thinks hard about taking action:

• Get serious about the mutual defense parts of the EU treaties, rather than NATO. How does France feel about a nuclear-capable Germany?
• Accept that it's going to be damned expensive.
• Kick the 80,000+ US military and their kit out of Europe. Soon.
• Work hard to get Britain to jump the right way.

And part of me also thinks, don't ask me to constrain the Trumpists overseas, I've got a civil war to fight.

Michael Cain, I thought the snark about 'just executing a warrant' was obvious enough. The pretense, whether it was cocaine and submachine guns or counterfeit aspirin and single shot soft air rifles, is simply ridiculous. They could as well justify their actions with him jaywalking, not paying for a bus ticket or parking violations. It was an act of war without war being declared or congress even discussing anything that could serve as a legal pretense. And it was another test case what he can get away with. Will he try a fait accompli with Greenland next? I think that has ceased to be a mere academic question after to-day. I think it would actually take less military effort to sweep in and take over than what they did in Caracas.

Jesus. This from David Frum's piece in the Atlantic today, lands sinisterly:

Because the anti-Trump side is preoccupied with domestic politics, it sometimes overlooks how Trump is corroding American leadership in the world. The Venezuelan regime is broadly unpopular in Latin America; its socialism of plunder has sent millions of desperate people into Colombia and other states. But U.S. intervention is deeply mistrusted in the region, associated much more closely with bringing dictators to power than with toppling them. The administration could have courted greater legitimacy for its actions by cooperating with regional partners, such as Colombia and Brazil, which have both tangled with the Maduro regime in the recent past. Refusing such cooperation is not merely an incidental vice of Trump’s foreign policy. That vice is at its core. Military action in Venezuela today without allies may prefigure action tomorrow against allies—for example, to invade and annex Greenland. The big strategic idea of the second Trump administration is that major powers are entitled to dominate their neighbors: Russia to dominate Ukraine, China to dominate its neighborhood, and the U.S. to rule over Venezuela, Greenland, Panama, and ultimately Canada—Trump’s desired “51st state.”

David Frum's politics are not mine, but I am determined to keep an eye on rational rightwingers, in case they ever have any influence on the GOP (hard to see at this point). If anybody wants the full piece, just let me know.

Well, he just executed the arrest warrant from the Southern District of NY for among other things illegal possession of firearms and intent to acquire such. Where in the constitution does it say that one needs a congressional approval for that?
Let's see how much pocket change Maduro has to buy a pardon.
Of course, if is state charges, that would require a transfer to the feds first.
Meanwhile, His Orangeness has declared that the official government of Mexico is not actually in charge of the country but the cartels and that will have consequences soon. Hm, a few days ago he declared that Columbia would be next. Such inconsistency. Not to forget similar threats towards Iran. As usual the open support of the US and Israel for the protestors in Iran gives the radicals on both sides* the licence/license/pretense to use indiscriminate violence.
Btw, Israel is currently facing some headwind with a plan to introduce a capital crime that can only be committed by Palestinians.
China and Russia are delighted, I presume, about the current events. It's exactly what they need for their own propaganda.

*I do not include the civilian protestors.

International law and strategic consequences aside, they never learn:

U.S. officials ran a war game ...
The results showed that chaos and violence were likely to erupt ... “The thing that really worries us is that they don’t appear to have any serious plan for what happens afterward,” said Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group ... Mr. Maduro’s overthrow — whether by military coup, popular uprising or U.S. military action — would shatter Venezuela’s brittle authoritarian government and produce “chaos for a sustained period of time with no possibility of ending it,”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/us/politics/venezuela-maduro-fallout-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BlA.jrlx.gJPz0yuSJoGR&smid=url-share

No, no! 2026, far more f*cked up than 2025!

I note that, not only has there been no Declaration of War. There hasn't even been any sign of a Congressional resolution, such has provided a fig leaf for our various wars since World War II.

How long before Trump emulates his hero and calls it a Special Military Operation? Or will he go all in, and call it a spetsoperatsiya? (No chance he can manage спецопера́ция.)

Will His Orangeness compare his dict-napping in Venezuela to Israel's capture of Eichmann given that he in essence accuses Maduro constantly of murdering millions of US citizens (per year or per month?)?

I haven't been able to get that wonderful version of Auld Lang Syne out of my mind. And since the line in the original Burns poem is actually:
"For auld lang syne my jo" (i.e. not "my dear"), where jo means dear or darling, I've been obsessively remembering my favourite Burns poem John Anderson my jo, John, and how I read it to my beloved father (who adored Burns) when he was appallingly felled by a stroke, and how I could hardly get through it without my voice badly breaking. Much as I could hardly get through Danny Boy when I sang it to him during that time.

John Anderson my jo, John,
When we were first acquent;
Your locks were like the raven,
Your bony brow was brent;
But now your brow is beld, John,
Your locks are like the snaw;
But blessings on your frosty pow,
John Anderson my Jo.

John Anderson my jo, John,
We clamb the hill the gither;
And mony a canty day, John,
We’ve had wi’ ane anither:
Now we maun totter down, John,
And hand in hand we’ll go;
And sleep the gither at the foot,
John Anderson my Jo.

There is a version of Eddie Reader singing this on Youtube, but I don't think it is nearly as good as some of her other versions of Burns's poems, and certainly not as moving as russell's posted Auld Lang Syne.