At current valuations AI would have to bring in $400 per year per US resident for the AI companies to produce a decent return on investment. Which isn’t happening in the foreseeable future.
Individuals may not spend $400 on AI-based services. Employers may purchase much more than that on behalf of each of their (remaining) employees.
2 weeks ago
Since no one else has posted it, Nvidia reported record revenue and profits up 65%. The stock is up 5% in after-hours trading.
2 weeks ago
Even making the heroic assumption that the various fabs are not severely damaged or destroyed.
It seems insane to me, but if China were to decide that if they can't have 3nm chips -- and Biden certainly leaned on Taiwan and countries that might act as intermediaries to block access -- then no one can have 3nm chips... well, a dozen ballistic missiles with big enough HE payloads (and sufficient accuracy) puts TSMC out of that business. TSMC is building a very large campus and production lines in Arizona, but has consistently said they don't plan on ever locating their leading edge processes there.
2 weeks ago
Should have added, the various companies that have decided to design their own chips for AI -- Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, probably some others -- also depend on TSMC for fabrication.
2 weeks ago
Nvidia, of course, manufactures the chips preferred by AI data centers.
Nit-picking... Nvidia designs chips. All of their chips are fabricated by TSMC in Taiwan. Earlier this month Nvidia's CEO said publicly that he had asked TSMC to increase their 3nm fab capacity because of the volume of new orders Nvidia was receiving.
At current valuations AI would have to bring in $400 per year per US resident for the AI companies to produce a decent return on investment. Which isn’t happening in the foreseeable future.
Individuals may not spend $400 on AI-based services. Employers may purchase much more than that on behalf of each of their (remaining) employees.
Since no one else has posted it, Nvidia reported record revenue and profits up 65%. The stock is up 5% in after-hours trading.
It seems insane to me, but if China were to decide that if they can't have 3nm chips -- and Biden certainly leaned on Taiwan and countries that might act as intermediaries to block access -- then no one can have 3nm chips... well, a dozen ballistic missiles with big enough HE payloads (and sufficient accuracy) puts TSMC out of that business. TSMC is building a very large campus and production lines in Arizona, but has consistently said they don't plan on ever locating their leading edge processes there.
Should have added, the various companies that have decided to design their own chips for AI -- Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, probably some others -- also depend on TSMC for fabrication.
Nvidia, of course, manufactures the chips preferred by AI data centers.
Nit-picking... Nvidia designs chips. All of their chips are fabricated by TSMC in Taiwan. Earlier this month Nvidia's CEO said publicly that he had asked TSMC to increase their 3nm fab capacity because of the volume of new orders Nvidia was receiving.