Another podcast, unfortunately, with only the youtube computer generated transcript.
https://youtu.be/eOYf0qo9Mco?si=hh5fFoopjfIifald
I like the pair who do this, though it is interesting that they are a lot more negative on the conditions that China is facing then their guest (Michal Meidan, head of China Energy Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies), is. She doesn't think it as big a speed bump as they do which I agree with, so she is obviously correct.
2 weeks ago
nous, thanks for that link. The article had this Venezuela has been the biggest recipient of official Chinese loans and grants in South America, accepting about $106bn between 2000 and 2023, according to AidData, a research centre at the College of William and Mary in Virginia.
those dates were interesting, and I asked Gemini about the pattern of Chinese loans to Venezuela and it gave me this
According to data tracking from AidData and the Inter-American Dialogue, there was a massive pivot in Chinese credit starting around 2015–2016.
The Financial Shift (2015–2023)
If we isolate the period from 2015 to 2023, the total amount of new official Chinese loans and grants to Venezuela is approximately $15 billion to $18 billion. While that number sounds large, it represents a dramatic 85% decrease in the pace of lending compared to the previous decade. Here is the breakdown of why that number is so much lower:
The 2015 Peak: 2015 was effectively the "last hurrah" of major lending, highlighted by a $5 billion loan for the "Joint Chinese-Venezuelan Fund" and another $5 billion for oil development.
The 2016 Freeze: After 2016, Beijing largely stopped issuing new, large-scale discretionary loans. From 2017 to 2023, new lending dropped to near zero.
The "Grace Period" Era: Since 2020, the relationship has shifted from providing new cash to managing existing debt. China has primarily focused on granting repayment waivers or "grace periods" rather than sending new capital.
Why the sudden drop?
The transition between these two timeframes highlights a change in Chinese foreign policy and Venezuela’s internal stability: Interestingly, while Venezuela was the top recipient from 2000 to 2023, if you look only at the 2015–2023 window, countries like Brazil and Argentina became more active recipients of Chinese capital (particularly in infrastructure and energy) as China sought more stable investment environments.
Chavez died in 2013, so the Chinese may have seen the writing on the wall for Maduro.
The AidData site is a nice catch and has several working papers that might be of interest, The overall tenor of the papers are that China is being quite resourceful in making sure that they don't get burned.
Another podcast, unfortunately, with only the youtube computer generated transcript.
https://youtu.be/eOYf0qo9Mco?si=hh5fFoopjfIifald
I like the pair who do this, though it is interesting that they are a lot more negative on the conditions that China is facing then their guest (Michal Meidan, head of China Energy Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies), is. She doesn't think it as big a speed bump as they do which I agree with, so she is obviously correct.
nous, thanks for that link. The article had this
Venezuela has been the biggest recipient of official Chinese loans and grants in South America, accepting about $106bn between 2000 and 2023, according to AidData, a research centre at the College of William and Mary in Virginia.
those dates were interesting, and I asked Gemini about the pattern of Chinese loans to Venezuela and it gave me this
According to data tracking from AidData and the Inter-American Dialogue, there was a massive pivot in Chinese credit starting around 2015–2016.
The Financial Shift (2015–2023)
If we isolate the period from 2015 to 2023, the total amount of new official Chinese loans and grants to Venezuela is approximately $15 billion to $18 billion.
While that number sounds large, it represents a dramatic 85% decrease in the pace of lending compared to the previous decade. Here is the breakdown of why that number is so much lower:
Why the sudden drop?
The transition between these two timeframes highlights a change in Chinese foreign policy and Venezuela’s internal stability:
Interestingly, while Venezuela was the top recipient from 2000 to 2023, if you look only at the 2015–2023 window, countries like Brazil and Argentina became more active recipients of Chinese capital (particularly in infrastructure and energy) as China sought more stable investment environments.
Chavez died in 2013, so the Chinese may have seen the writing on the wall for Maduro.
The AidData site is a nice catch and has several working papers that might be of interest, The overall tenor of the papers are that China is being quite resourceful in making sure that they don't get burned.