russell: In general, she says, the officers are kind to the folks they are handling. She hasn’t met that many – 10 or 12? – but that’s the pattern. So at least some of these people have retained some degree of their own humanity.
I think it's useful to distinguish between those ICE officers who have been hired under Trump and those who were not. The group who were hired under Trump are pretty uniformly scum who ought to be booted out as soon as possible. (With criminal charges where those can be sustained.)
The other group probably includes some bad apples. But the majority should be assumed to be normal people, absent evidence otherwise in specific cases.
I know it's tempting to generalize. ("All ICE agents are horrible!" "All white people are racists!" etc.) But it is not helpful if the goal is to solve a problem, or change a behavior which some of the group is engaging in.
It also fails to mention that the USGS, which maps mineral deposits (my dad worked for it before he went into the Navy Oceanographic department) was subject to the DOGE cuts, with about 20% being let go or taking early retirement.
There are two obvious possibilities here. First, the importance of rare earths, and the fact that China currently dominates supplies, may have simply escaped the notice of the the ignoramuses in the administration. So no reason to tell DOGE that USGS was off limits.
Second, the administration has shown across the board distain for competence, let alone expertise, After all, everything of importance has been known for decades. So obviously no need for anything like a geologist. A possible exception of everything already being known might be earthquakes. But since those only impact California, who cares. Certainly if we don't care about knowing about hurricanes (which actually threaten Mar-a-Lago)....
I think this is more about rare earths, strategic positioning and what it is going to cost to do what is necessary to keep China and Russia at bay.
It is well to remember that "rare earths" are not, in point of fact, rare. Certainly there are places with greater amounts (bits of Greenland among them). But the reason they are rare is just that it is extremely difficult (and, with current technology, highly polluting) to separate them from each other.
If you don't care about the pollution, you could refine them in Wyoming, Missouri, or California -- all of which have significant deposits. As it is, mines in those places do minimal processing, and then ship the concentrate to Chnia for refining. That's why China dominates rare earths -- they're indifferent to the pollution caused by refining them.
If Trump annexes Greenland, the real risk is the high pollution refining which he (or those he sells it to) will cheerfully site where US (or European) pollution restrictions suddenly don't reach.
My own point of view is that ICE and the CBP in their current form need to be disbanded. They are a public menace. We need to manage immigration, but not like this. Shut it down and start over from a clean slate.
My inclination would be to shut them down and lay off everybody working at either. Those who worked there pre-Trump are welcome to reapply. But no promises. Those hired under a Trump administration? Don't even bother to apply, because that's an automatic reject.
On the evidence of now 5 years of Trump administration(s), there seems no way to guess in advance what, if anything, will turn out to be a tipping point. One only notes that numerous events which might reasonably be expected to be a tipping point have turned out not to be.
No doubt 20/20 hindsight will allow future historians to write "Obviously...." But us living thru events? No way to make a meaningful prediction.
he was told on Tuesday that he needed to excise some teachings of Plato from his syllabus.
I wonder if I could win a sucker bet here. I'd bet most** of those exercised by Plato have never actually read any of it. Beyond, perhaps, whatever quotes out of context an AI might include in response to a query about possible "woke" material in the college curriculum. Any takers?
** Actually, if any have I would be surprised. But there are always a few college students who, for whatever reason, have had occasion to read with utter incomprehension.
Maybe it’s prodding to wake Denmark and the EU up.
bc, can you really believe that Trump and his henchmen are capable of that level of sophistication? Because everything I've seen leads me to believe that they have only three modes:
Threat and bluster, to get exactly what they are demanding. With maybe the occasional demand to give an excuse for something else. E.g. demanding that Maduro resign to set up an excuse to seize Venezuelan oil. (See #2 below)
Straight up violence, to get what they want (with or without threats first)
If push back is hard (i.e. threatening) enough, pretend the threats never happened. TACO Because being seen to try (as opposed to merely demanding) and fail would be intolerable.
Counter examples of where he threatened, but merely as a wake up call, would be welcome.**
** Note that his threats over NATO members 2% were in pursuit of an excuse (per option 1) to, if not exit NATO altogether, drop any kind to commitment to live up to the treaty. (Yes, I know the treaty only requires consultations if a member is attacked. But I'd be astounded if Trump grasps that.) See option 1 above -- he could care less what they actually spend.
I have some sympathy for the folks who, a year ago, were just doing their routine jobs as customs inspectors. And now are tarred by association with the horrific thugs Trump, Noem, and Miller have recruited and unleashed.
Opening up oil is a good idea if the government is going to lose drug revenue and get the economy going again. If the plan includes pressure for a free and fair election in the immediate to near future, and it actually happens, and there is a peaceful transition of power, that would obviously be amazing.
It would be amazing if any US administration could pull it off.** But the massive incompetents we actually have? Even assuming the massive counterfactual that it would even occur to them to try, there's zero probability that the attempt would be anything but an epic failure.
** We did manage something like this with Germany and Japan in the mid-20th century. But we had also just utterly, overwhelmingly, defeated them in war. We had huge armies in place to conrol the places. And we had a few people in positions of authority (e.g. Marshall) with both the desire and the wit to make it happen. None of which conditions apply.
“Maduro is a narcoterrorist and was illegally importing cocaine”
What acts of terrorism has he committed?
The users of the term "narcoterrorism" argue that anyone who traffics narcotics is, ipso facto, a terrorist. Regardless of where the narcotics are from or where they are going to. (Except US manufacturers, e.g. the Sackler family, of course.)
GftNC,
Re editing: I have found that, once I post something, I can tap on the text of the post and then (but only then) a little gear wheel appears at the bottom right of the post. Click on that to get to edit mode.
The US has wanted Greenland for a long time. We occupied it during WWII invoking the Monroe Doctrine.
That's kind of a stretch. During World War II, you will recall that Denmark had been conquered the Nazi Germany. Holding Greenland was merely keeping the Germans from establishing a base from which to attack the North Atlantic convoys. When Denmark was liberated, Greenland immediately returned to Danish rule. The US maintains bases there still, but it has bases on lots of countries around the world.
Certainly Greenland still has strategic value. But while there have been contingency plans to keep it out of hostile hands for a century, that's quite a ways from just flat out wanting to take it over. (I'm not willing to concede Trump might be capable of strategic thinking to the point of considering Denmark a future hostile power. No matter how much he bad-mouths the EU.)
I see the our Secretary of State is already talking about doing something similar in Cuba (totally no surprise) and Nicaragua. Perhaps he wants to move quickly, to get it done before it becomes obvious what a total cock-up this is.
I suppose the Canadians and the Danes feel some temporary relief that the crazies are still looking south for the moment.
What jurisdiction does the SDNY have over the president of another country?
Well, they can apply to have him extradited. (Good luck with that.)
Or, if he travels to the US without diplomatic immunity, they could have him arrested while he was here. Whether being kidnapped and brought into the US counts is dubious. Certainly having the US government do the kidnapping, as in this case, seems like cause to throw the case out of court. Even before the (low) quality of the actual case is addressed.
“We’re going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition,” Trump said
Consider the level of ineptitude he has demonstrated running this country. Figure that he will likely to send the worst of the worst (albeit pretty on camera) to supposedly run a country where, inevitably, none of them speak the language.
People with appropriate linguistic expertise are requested to find a word we can use when "fiasco" is just way too mild.
I note that, not only has there been no Declaration of War. There hasn't even been any sign of a Congressional resolution, such has provided a fig leaf for our various wars since World War II.
How long before Trump emulates his hero and calls it a Special Military Operation? Or will he go all in, and call it a spetsoperatsiya? (No chance he can manage спецопера́ция.)
Is there a cadre of old school (R)’s ready and able to turn the GOP around in 2008? I don’t see it. I don’t know how they would do it.
Is there a cadre of old school Republicans? I'm sure there is. Willing to turn the GOP around? That, too. Able? I beg leave to doubt it. Like russell, I don't see how anyone could.
The closest I can picture is explicitly splitting the party (with the old school guys willing to abandon the name, which I expect them to hate). But that would leave them with too small a base to compete effectively. They would do better to wait for the Democrats to fission, and join one of the pieces. But that's not a turn-around.
Vance is a pail of lukewarm dog vomit and naked ambition. I don’t think he can hold any of it together for long.
What still terrifies me, though, is what comes after. I’m not convinced that the US Constitution can keep this place running with just another patch.
I completely agree on Vance. To hold their current coalition together post-Trump, they would need a figure who, among other things, is a showman like Trump is. Vance not only isn't, he not even vaguely close. And while there are doubtless would-be demagogues out there, there isn't one who seems likely to be the necessary unifying figure.
I see how the US and its Constitution could continue (with some modifications/Amendments, but recognizably a continuation). What my imagination is not adequate for is envisioning a path from here to there.
The Christianist nationalists can get pushed back into their former condition of minimal relevance. Just one more group of wierdos in a country which has long had a plethora of them. That's not the real challenge.
While other countries manage just fine with multiple parties, the US seems to favor a two party norm. The parties don't have to agree on much policy-wise, just be willing to accept that the majority of voters will sometimes favor one and other times the other. (That's a big piece of what is driving the Republicans into irrelevance: the voters overall like pieceful transfers of power. )
A third party can arise, but in a relatively short time it will either replace one of the two major parties or join the ranks of the essentially irrelevant minor parties (think Greens or American Independence Party). How does that happen? It's difficult to say, since there are only a couple of examples:
circa 1830 (partly as fallout from their stance on the War of 1812) the Federalists fell into irrelevance, and the Republicans (usually referred to, these days, as the "Democratic Republicans" for clarity) split into the Democrats and the Whigs,
In the 1850s (over the issue of slavery) the Whigs got displaced by the Republicans.
I doubt that the current Republican Party is salvageable. But will a new party arise (probably including many ex-Republicans, like the Whigs in the early Republican Party)? I'm not seeing any sign of that, at least not yet. Or will the Democrats split, and on what basis? I'm not seeing any glimmers of that either. There are places (e.g. California) where the Republicans have embraced irrelevance for decades, but the Democrats here are still divided by individual personalities, rather than by anything resembling groups.
As I say, I can see something of where we could get to, but not how to get there.
On the other hand, where else we might go is not obvious either. The mechanics are clear -- the Constitution provides for piecemeal amendment or complete replacement. But what would get hammered out in a Constitutional Convention, should we go that route? And how would it be able to satisfy the majority required to ratify the new one? "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future."
I'd say the biggest epiphantic sign is that the cultists, while they don't appear to be leaving the faith, are much less willing to flaunt it. The signs and banners and hats are far less in evidence than they a year ago, or during his first term. Might it be that they are, perhaps not entirely consciously, preparing themselves to bury their past?
P.S. I'm not sure the lack of turnover in Trump's cabinet reflects any concern about getting replacements approved. That would require a firmer grasp of reality than we see elsewhere. Instead, I think it reflects the fact that they are all shameless toadies who constantly tell him how wonderful he is, and feed him fantasies about how successfully they are doing what he wants. As opposed to last term, where there was a lot of turnover from people telling him No . . . and failing to lie about what was actually going on.
There were lots of disparaging comments, during the first term, about the so-called "adults in the room." Mostly reflecting the view that they didn't seem to be stopping him from creating one mess after another. Having now seen what happens without them, it's pretty apparent that a lot of restraint was, in fact, happening. It seems like some apoligies are in order. Not that I expect to see any.
In Northern California we got serious rain Tuesday. But Christmas Eve was merely mostly cloudy. And today is down to partly cloudy.
The notable weather feature is that we've had almost a week of daily highs of 57-58, with overnight lows of 54-56. I can't remember a time when the temperature has been so constant.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “An open thread”
I think it's useful to distinguish between those ICE officers who have been hired under Trump and those who were not. The group who were hired under Trump are pretty uniformly scum who ought to be booted out as soon as possible. (With criminal charges where those can be sustained.)
The other group probably includes some bad apples. But the majority should be assumed to be normal people, absent evidence otherwise in specific cases.
I know it's tempting to generalize. ("All ICE agents are horrible!" "All white people are racists!" etc.) But it is not helpful if the goal is to solve a problem, or change a behavior which some of the group is engaging in.
On “2026, as f**ked up as 2025”
There are two obvious possibilities here. First, the importance of rare earths, and the fact that China currently dominates supplies, may have simply escaped the notice of the the ignoramuses in the administration. So no reason to tell DOGE that USGS was off limits.
Second, the administration has shown across the board distain for competence, let alone expertise, After all, everything of importance has been known for decades. So obviously no need for anything like a geologist. A possible exception of everything already being known might be earthquakes. But since those only impact California, who cares. Certainly if we don't care about knowing about hurricanes (which actually threaten Mar-a-Lago)....
"
It is well to remember that "rare earths" are not, in point of fact, rare. Certainly there are places with greater amounts (bits of Greenland among them). But the reason they are rare is just that it is extremely difficult (and, with current technology, highly polluting) to separate them from each other.
If you don't care about the pollution, you could refine them in Wyoming, Missouri, or California -- all of which have significant deposits. As it is, mines in those places do minimal processing, and then ship the concentrate to Chnia for refining. That's why China dominates rare earths -- they're indifferent to the pollution caused by refining them.
If Trump annexes Greenland, the real risk is the high pollution refining which he (or those he sells it to) will cheerfully site where US (or European) pollution restrictions suddenly don't reach.
On “An open thread”
My inclination would be to shut them down and lay off everybody working at either. Those who worked there pre-Trump are welcome to reapply. But no promises. Those hired under a Trump administration? Don't even bother to apply, because that's an automatic reject.
"
On the evidence of now 5 years of Trump administration(s), there seems no way to guess in advance what, if anything, will turn out to be a tipping point. One only notes that numerous events which might reasonably be expected to be a tipping point have turned out not to be.
No doubt 20/20 hindsight will allow future historians to write "Obviously...." But us living thru events? No way to make a meaningful prediction.
"
Was it for not being sufficiently fascist? Or for not being sufficiently sexist? (Could be both, I suppose....)
"
he was told on Tuesday that he needed to excise some teachings of Plato from his syllabus.
I wonder if I could win a sucker bet here. I'd bet most** of those exercised by Plato have never actually read any of it. Beyond, perhaps, whatever quotes out of context an AI might include in response to a query about possible "woke" material in the college curriculum. Any takers?
** Actually, if any have I would be surprised. But there are always a few college students who, for whatever reason, have had occasion to read with utter incomprehension.
On “2026, as f**ked up as 2025”
bc, can you really believe that Trump and his henchmen are capable of that level of sophistication? Because everything I've seen leads me to believe that they have only three modes:
Counter examples of where he threatened, but merely as a wake up call, would be welcome.**
** Note that his threats over NATO members 2% were in pursuit of an excuse (per option 1) to, if not exit NATO altogether, drop any kind to commitment to live up to the treaty. (Yes, I know the treaty only requires consultations if a member is attacked. But I'd be astounded if Trump grasps that.) See option 1 above -- he could care less what they actually spend.
"
I have some sympathy for the folks who, a year ago, were just doing their routine jobs as customs inspectors. And now are tarred by association with the horrific thugs Trump, Noem, and Miller have recruited and unleashed.
"
Fake headline from social media:
Maduro says he’s in the country illegally, asks ICE to deport him.
Kinda appalling that, if he did, it might even work. (Although being deported to South Sudan would be only a small improvement for him.)
"
It would be amazing if any US administration could pull it off.** But the massive incompetents we actually have? Even assuming the massive counterfactual that it would even occur to them to try, there's zero probability that the attempt would be anything but an epic failure.
** We did manage something like this with Germany and Japan in the mid-20th century. But we had also just utterly, overwhelmingly, defeated them in war. We had huge armies in place to conrol the places. And we had a few people in positions of authority (e.g. Marshall) with both the desire and the wit to make it happen. None of which conditions apply.
"
Because it is so much more difficult to hide resistance groups in heavy jungle than it is in the desert. Riiiiight....
"
The users of the term "narcoterrorism" argue that anyone who traffics narcotics is, ipso facto, a terrorist. Regardless of where the narcotics are from or where they are going to. (Except US manufacturers, e.g. the Sackler family, of course.)
"
GftNC,
Re editing: I have found that, once I post something, I can tap on the text of the post and then (but only then) a little gear wheel appears at the bottom right of the post. Click on that to get to edit mode.
"
That's kind of a stretch. During World War II, you will recall that Denmark had been conquered the Nazi Germany. Holding Greenland was merely keeping the Germans from establishing a base from which to attack the North Atlantic convoys. When Denmark was liberated, Greenland immediately returned to Danish rule. The US maintains bases there still, but it has bases on lots of countries around the world.
Certainly Greenland still has strategic value. But while there have been contingency plans to keep it out of hostile hands for a century, that's quite a ways from just flat out wanting to take it over. (I'm not willing to concede Trump might be capable of strategic thinking to the point of considering Denmark a future hostile power. No matter how much he bad-mouths the EU.)
"
I see the our Secretary of State is already talking about doing something similar in Cuba (totally no surprise) and Nicaragua. Perhaps he wants to move quickly, to get it done before it becomes obvious what a total cock-up this is.
I suppose the Canadians and the Danes feel some temporary relief that the crazies are still looking south for the moment.
"
What jurisdiction does the SDNY have over the president of another country?
Well, they can apply to have him extradited. (Good luck with that.)
Or, if he travels to the US without diplomatic immunity, they could have him arrested while he was here. Whether being kidnapped and brought into the US counts is dubious. Certainly having the US government do the kidnapping, as in this case, seems like cause to throw the case out of court. Even before the (low) quality of the actual case is addressed.
"
Consider the level of ineptitude he has demonstrated running this country. Figure that he will likely to send the worst of the worst (albeit pretty on camera) to supposedly run a country where, inevitably, none of them speak the language.
People with appropriate linguistic expertise are requested to find a word we can use when "fiasco" is just way too mild.
"
No, no! 2026, far more f*cked up than 2025!
I note that, not only has there been no Declaration of War. There hasn't even been any sign of a Congressional resolution, such has provided a fig leaf for our various wars since World War II.
How long before Trump emulates his hero and calls it a Special Military Operation? Or will he go all in, and call it a spetsoperatsiya? (No chance he can manage спецопера́ция.)
On “Moving towards Epiphany”
I guess now we have the answer to the 2025 Question of the Year:
Which will Trump invade first, Canada or Greenland?
"
Is there a cadre of old school Republicans? I'm sure there is. Willing to turn the GOP around? That, too. Able? I beg leave to doubt it. Like russell, I don't see how anyone could.
The closest I can picture is explicitly splitting the party (with the old school guys willing to abandon the name, which I expect them to hate). But that would leave them with too small a base to compete effectively. They would do better to wait for the Democrats to fission, and join one of the pieces. But that's not a turn-around.
"
Of course not. That's why McCain won in 2008. Well, that and the Democratic base picked a candidate they should have known was unelectable.
/s
"
I completely agree on Vance. To hold their current coalition together post-Trump, they would need a figure who, among other things, is a showman like Trump is. Vance not only isn't, he not even vaguely close. And while there are doubtless would-be demagogues out there, there isn't one who seems likely to be the necessary unifying figure.
I see how the US and its Constitution could continue (with some modifications/Amendments, but recognizably a continuation). What my imagination is not adequate for is envisioning a path from here to there.
The Christianist nationalists can get pushed back into their former condition of minimal relevance. Just one more group of wierdos in a country which has long had a plethora of them. That's not the real challenge.
While other countries manage just fine with multiple parties, the US seems to favor a two party norm. The parties don't have to agree on much policy-wise, just be willing to accept that the majority of voters will sometimes favor one and other times the other. (That's a big piece of what is driving the Republicans into irrelevance: the voters overall like pieceful transfers of power. )
A third party can arise, but in a relatively short time it will either replace one of the two major parties or join the ranks of the essentially irrelevant minor parties (think Greens or American Independence Party). How does that happen? It's difficult to say, since there are only a couple of examples:
I doubt that the current Republican Party is salvageable. But will a new party arise (probably including many ex-Republicans, like the Whigs in the early Republican Party)? I'm not seeing any sign of that, at least not yet. Or will the Democrats split, and on what basis? I'm not seeing any glimmers of that either. There are places (e.g. California) where the Republicans have embraced irrelevance for decades, but the Democrats here are still divided by individual personalities, rather than by anything resembling groups.
As I say, I can see something of where we could get to, but not how to get there.
On the other hand, where else we might go is not obvious either. The mechanics are clear -- the Constitution provides for piecemeal amendment or complete replacement. But what would get hammered out in a Constitutional Convention, should we go that route? And how would it be able to satisfy the majority required to ratify the new one? "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future."
"
I'd say the biggest epiphantic sign is that the cultists, while they don't appear to be leaving the faith, are much less willing to flaunt it. The signs and banners and hats are far less in evidence than they a year ago, or during his first term. Might it be that they are, perhaps not entirely consciously, preparing themselves to bury their past?
P.S. I'm not sure the lack of turnover in Trump's cabinet reflects any concern about getting replacements approved. That would require a firmer grasp of reality than we see elsewhere. Instead, I think it reflects the fact that they are all shameless toadies who constantly tell him how wonderful he is, and feed him fantasies about how successfully they are doing what he wants. As opposed to last term, where there was a lot of turnover from people telling him No . . . and failing to lie about what was actually going on.
There were lots of disparaging comments, during the first term, about the so-called "adults in the room." Mostly reflecting the view that they didn't seem to be stopping him from creating one mess after another. Having now seen what happens without them, it's pretty apparent that a lot of restraint was, in fact, happening. It seems like some apoligies are in order. Not that I expect to see any.
On “An inscrutable Merry Christmas”
In Northern California we got serious rain Tuesday. But Christmas Eve was merely mostly cloudy. And today is down to partly cloudy.
The notable weather feature is that we've had almost a week of daily highs of 57-58, with overnight lows of 54-56. I can't remember a time when the temperature has been so constant.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.