I haven't read a lot about this, the whole thing makes me sick to my stomach. I did read something along the lines that nous laid out, that maybe the 8 senators, all of whom were not running again, were providing cover for other senators. This to me is an even more damning criticism of the move.
The only silver lining I can see is that Trump will feel emboldened by this and the whole shit show could really explode in their faces. I suppose that the second is that Schumer might get voted out and they get someone who has a spine.
wj - I understand what you are saying about not interrupting the enemy when they are in the midst of making a mistake. What I do not understand is why you think Kaine saying something like what wonkie outlines would in any way tip off the GOP that they were being set up.
And, assuming that they did recognize the mousetrap, I really don't see how the GOP could ever avoid that trap. Even if they see it sitting there, The Ancient Orange One Who Slumbers will not let them back down from tearing down a big shiny thing with Obama's name on it.
So where is the downside for Kaine blasting the GOP?
And I really don't believe that this is all Schumer calculus, and that the drama between caucuses has been scripted. If I had to pick anyone out of that group who was doing it for cover, I'd say it was Durbin giving cover to Gillibrand, but I don't think that was engineered by Schumer.
And I think Schumer should lose his leadership spot because he is such a soft target for people like Stewart, and even his attempts at sounding feisty look and sound squishy to anyone not starting to worry about retirement. The Dems need a scrappy wartime leader, not someone who talks about the sympathetic conversations that they have with their colleagues across the aisle while working out at the Senate gym.
Pull him from his leadership position and put someone else in front of those cameras who knows how to talk a good fight.
But not indefinitely. I think the time is soon to spell it all out.
I agree. I would say immediately after a) the House concurs to the Senate bill and b) Trump signs it.
Until then, the Republicans have, or might think they have, a chance to perhaps wriggle out of the trap. But once that happens? They're toast.
No doubt they will be endlessly inventive trying to recover. But their only real escape would be to restore the subsidies. Which their fanatics wouldn't countenance. And Trump would veto if it somehow got thru Congress.
Suppose the thinking in the Democratic Caucus in the Senate was just what wonkie lays out above as what Senator Kaine should have said. Might there have been a reason not to say it out loud just now?"
wjca has a point. I saw a headline just today that said the Dems had mousetrapped the Rs. And they are mouse-trapped. Either there will be a vote on the ACA and they will have to put themselves on record or there won't be and they will be the bad guys that way too.
It is clear that certain Senators were chosen to fall on their swords.
It is entirely possible that Dems in the Senate thought, "Those sociopaths in the R party aren't going to be the first to blink, no matter what and we believe in public service and are aware of the suffering, so we have to blink. So let's strategize how to do it to lessen the blow back to us and save some people and put the Rs on the spot with the ACA."
And yes they would have to keep this quiet,
But not indefinitely. I think the time is soon to spell it all out.
I generally have little time for those who see conspiracies everywhere. But it occurs to me to wonder...
Suppose the thinking in the Democratic Caucus in the Senate was just what wonkie lays out above as what Senator Kaine should have said. Might there have been a reason not to say it out loud just now?
Start with the fairly safe assumption that the Republicans in Congress aren't the sharpest knives in the drawer. If the Democrats don't stand up and announce that they've neatly mousetrapped the Republicans here, the idea that it might be happening is unlikely to occur to them. Especially if there are loud complaints about "caving in" and "betrayal" from Democratic activists -- which we are hearing.
So the Republicans cheerfully pass the continuing resolution that just passed the Senate. And loudly declare victory (which Trump is incapable of not doing). Then, February rolls around. The government shuts down again. The differences being that this time SNAP keeps going (per this bill), critical Federal workers get paid, etc. Of course, health insurance premiums continue to skyrocket. And elections come ever closer, close enough that voters may even remember whose fault that is.
Did the Democrats saw all this coming? I don't know, and certainly don't expect an announcement. But, as politics goes, this ain't rocket science. I note that Schumer only had votes for cloture from Senators who are retiring or otherwise not subject to primary battles next year. Which avoids wasting resources on those. Spend the money on those districts that the Republicans gerrymandered into smaller (supposed) Republican majorities.
What I find infuriating is less (much less) the cave in, and more the absolute refusal of the (R)'s to entertain an extension of the ACA subsidies.
Health care in this country is FUBAR beyond what I think folks living in any other developed country can fathom. The ACA, which was actually not original to Obama but was, in its fundamentals, a plan pioneered by Romney when he was governor of MA, was an attempt to get people insured. It is a half-assed program in many ways, because it tries to address the wishes of too many different constituencies, most definitely not to exclude private insurers. The requirements for what would be considered an acceptable plan were definitely ambitious for the US context, but would be mediocre pretty much anywhere else.
It's a weird convoluted complicated mess, but it's better than what we had. Believe it or not. And it cut the number of uninsured people in half.
We pay twice as much on average than any similar nation. We do not have twice the level of coverage, or twice the quality of outcomes. On the contrary.
People literally die here, literally go bankrupt here, as a result of the general shittiness of how we go about things.
Trump has an extreme personal animus toward Obama, so anything Obama did must be destroyed. Whether Obama actually did it or not, just the association of his name with the program is enough to make Trump determined to destroy it.
And Trump has nothing to replace it with. The stupid $2000 cash benefit he is talking about is (a) not gonna happen in anything like a form that will actually result in a $2000 check being cut to anybody, see also Bessent's comments about "no taxes on tips", and (b) would be laughably inadequate even if it were to materialize. $2000 is basically one ambulance ride and a couple of lab tests. For people in the private insurance market, it's something like one month of premiums.
We're extending the tax cuts, but ending the premium subsidies. And if anyone thinks the (R)'s are going to suddenly decide to extend them in December, I have a bridge I would like to sell you.
Yes to tax cuts, no to ACA subsidies, tells you everything you need to know about the state of this country right now.
russell, the cave-in was so infuriating and upsetting, because of all the inevitable results you list, that I was just relieved to see that Josh Marshall nonetheless saw some positives in what had happened:
But don’t tell me nothing has changed or that this is some cataclysmic disaster. It’s not. This accomplished a lot. It demonstrated that Democrats can go to the mat when the public is behind them and not pay a political price. It dramatically damaged Donald Trump. It cued up the central arguments of the 2026 campaign. It just didn’t go far enough. The ball was fumbled at the end. So we need to demand more.
Note that Pritzker was speaking in front of a union crowd there (my compatriots in the IFT). This is what I've been saying for well over an election cycle - there are a whole lot of reachable voters who would respond to union-style messaging: "When we fight, we win." And in the face of a (temporary) loss, shift the message to one of building strength and solidarity for the longer campaign, and get out and organize.
And when I say "organize," I don't mean "fundraise." The idea is to mobilize as many people as you can - get them coming out and doing things, and meeting others who are doing the same. Fundraising doesn't build community. Direct messaging doesn't build community. Email lists don't build community. Shared struggle builds community.
Also, I don't know how many of the people who complain about the progressives woeful messaging have taken the time to watch one of the videos that AOC puts out on her various social media platforms. She's really good, especially at speaking to voters under 45. And if you look at the demographics of the Blue Wave, those were the voters that carried the show.
wonkie, I very much like your alternative script for Kaine. If only some of them were capable of talking like this - it's clearly necessary. It seems like Pritzker may be capable of it:
“Books are being banned. History is being erased. Republicans want to take billions away from public schools and pump it into private institutions. They want to punish teachers for telling the truth. They want to criminalize educators for supporting LGBTQ students. They want to turn classrooms into cultural war battlegrounds,” Pritzker began. “I’m sorry to be vulgar, but Donald Trump and his cronies can f*** all the way off,” Pritzker said, causing a standing ovation from the audience at the Illinois Federation of Teachers gathered in Rosemont on October 19th.
Se what I mean? Mumbling curated professional word choices just doesn't work. Never has, never will. Dear God, you'd think professional politicians would know how to communicate. Now even the people the Dems were trying to protect will believe that the Dems screwed them for nothing. Honestly, Democrats. What was the point of your government shutdown? | Opinion
I've had two criticisms of Dem pols for many, many years: 1. the lack of fight and 2. the mushy, wishy-washy "respectable" way of speaking that fails to communicate anything.
I think the Dems have improved on both fronts but there is a ways to go. For example, Kaine said why he voted to end the shutdown. He said something about how there didn't seem to be any other way forward mumble mumble blah blah.
What he meant and what he should have said is this: "The Republicans don't care about anything except power for power's sake and they are willing, indeed committed to, harming millions of Americans just so they can feel powerful. They are willing to spin out the shut down until federal workers go bankrupt, children are malnourished and millions lose their health insurance. Democrats aren't ruthlessly willing to sacrifice our neighbors for power. We decided to cut a deal to save as many people as possible. This shameful episode shows that Republicans genuinely do not care about people and only care about power."
But because of the mumble mumble blah blah we have headlines saying that the shutdown was for nothing.
I think it would be helpful if the Democrats could figure out how to be moderate enough to allow more moderates to support them. These favorability ratings in the face of a fascist take over of government reflect how out of touch the Dems are at the other extreme. I keep looking for that party that isn't a sinking ship and don't see one.
As for the millions of Americans fucked by the ACA subsidies being cut, that was the plan put forward from the beginning. They were to last 5 years then phase out. That was never feasible but it was the plan bullied through Congress and part of the crowning achievement. Tough to have to live with it now. But both parties have not made them permanent for all these years so they both suck. As has the ACA structure from the beginning. It was an attempt to force employer insurance to go away and force full government controlled health care. It failed to accomplish that so its just a shitty half baked solution that is essential. Next Congress should just make the subsidies permanent and take the budget heat.
While I appreciate the analysis of the possible / likely tactical scenarios leading up to the "deal", the bottom line (to me) is that a lot of people are basically fucked.
The cost of private health insurance is probably going to double, or worse, for most folks that have it.
What I personally take away from all of this - and by "all of this" I mean the last decade if not longer - is that the (R) party and the conservative movement in general no longer serves the interests of the people of this country. What I see from them is cruelty and greed.
I understand that politics is the art of the possible, and that professional politicians need to do what they can in the particular circumstances they operate in.
And I'm glad that federal employees are gonna get paid.
But in the immortal words of Jerry Garcia, one way or another this darkness has got to give.
To say that people being outraged at the prospect of millions of their neighbors facing the choice of extreme financial distress or going without health insurance is "wailing and rending of garments" is dismissive and, frankly, kind of rude. People *should* be outraged.
To address GFTNC's cite of Marshall's piece, the thrust of what he was saying as far as I can tell is that yes, this totally sucks, but it's nice to see the (D)'s at least try to use the limited levers of power available to them.
And I don't disagree with that.
And like him, I'd like to see them do even more.
The (R)'s seriously deserve to be driven from the public space. They've become a dysfunctional, toxic cancer on the body public.
I suggest you moderate conservatives being the process of building an alternative. That, or go down with the sinking ship that is the (R) party.
without having any idea which approach is more correct.
Not going to be possible to tell soon, if ever, what the actual outcomes of the various possible scenarios would have been. Lots of speculation (including mine), mostly dressed up as certainty. The most we can hope for is some 20/20 hindsight on how what was done played out.
I'm glad of these slightly more positive interpretations (inc Josh Marshall, who hilzoy seems to respect), without having any idea which approach is more correct.
I think the "capitulation" was leadership's call. They had done as much damage politically to Trump and the GOP as they could get, and neither Trump nor Johnson were ever going to give up the subsidies. Johnson, in particular, almost automatically loses any tiny shred of credibility he has left if he does.
The Democrats picked people retiring or not having to run next year so minimal damage, leadership still gets to complain, but the pain eases.
I think it was as artfully played as possible. Kudos to Schumer and team.
My point was, that extension wasn’t going to come out regardless.
You are most likely right.
The wailing and rending of garments is not going to be "on the left". It's going to be coming from all the people who are being immiserated by this catastrophe of an administration.
I spend a lot of time in Spotify, average 4 hours a day, many days 12 hours I have a few 50 hour playlists but they aren't really curated, I have 20 or more 1 to 12 hour playlists carefully curated to the mood I wanted.
With that context, my Spotify listening has become a challenge as the algorithm is so trainable that almost any way I let Spotify pick songs it quickly just duplicates playlists I already have created with a different song here and there.
So, it trained me to be more imaginative in my seed requests. Song radio is my favorite way to listen, so I very carefully consider the seed song if I want a certain genre/era of music. It has become really fun to pick more obscure songs by lesser known artists to see how long it takes for that trail to lead back to my choices.
All to say that Spotify can be a fun pastime if you recognize its limitations and try to get around them. If you pick Willie Nelsons On the Road Again or Willis Alan Ramsey's Ballad of Spider John you eventually get to Jerry Jeff Walker but the road there is quite different.
I think it is a mistake to treat the defection of the eight and the decision to end the shutdown as only a matter of cost/benefit analysis for the possible outcomes. My earlier quotation addresses that:
Please don’t be so “revolutionary” that you think electoral politics never matter and please don’t be so “moderate” that you think electoral politics are all that matter. – Abiola Agoro
As I have said before of union bargaining strategies, sometimes it's important to fight a losing battle in order to establish the narrative for the next battle and make your opponent think about the cost of that next victory. It's the reason why so many older brothers say that you have to hit the bully as hard as you can even if they are going to beat the crap out of you. It also sends an important message to allies and bystanders that the bully can be resisted and hurt.
So for me the questions "are we going to win?" and "are people going to get hurt if we resis?t" are not the only important questions. It's also important to ask how accepting that loss at this moment is going to affect the public narrative and the results of the next such confrontation. If holding out for another week gives the GOP another full week of having to deal with Blue Wave stories without significantly adding to the suffering of at-risk people, then I think you have to try to stretch it for one more week, and your caucus puts energy into helping take the sting out of the need with food drives and informational campaigns and partnerships with progressive faith groups. You still give in, but you give in on your terms, when you have a more opportune moment to control the narrative.
I think this is what Agoro is getting at when she says not to be so moderate that you think electoral politics are all that matter.
I'll also say here that I think Kaine, being the Senator for Virginia, was probably under a lot of pressure from a constituency that is heavy with fired federal workers who were asking him to find a way to get them their jobs back. I think his decision made sense, and while I don't think he should be let off the hook, I do think that any punishment he get from the caucus should be less than what the others receive.
The others should be out in the cold for any political favors for a long time, and I would not be sad if they were challenged in their next primaries.
What is not going to come out of all of this is any kind of extension of the ACA subsidies.
My point was, that extension wasn't going to come out regardless. Those Republicans in Congress (on their own, let alone driven by Trump) simply are not going to extend those until the increased insurance costs generate howls from their own constituents. And they never were. There simply is no plausible scenario where that would happen before spring. Because, even if the Senate Republicans were somehow brought to agree to it, the House simply wouldn't concur.
Whether they allow a vote next month on those subsidies, as agreed, or not, it's fairly certain that an extension will fail to pass. And when it does, it will be defeated stand-alone -- no other spending distractions. (Of course, the Congressional Republicans might surprise us all. But I figure it will be months before they can bring themselves to act.)
Wjca's point about whether Johnson will bring the House back or not is an interesting one. He's kind of between a rock and a hard place.
But overall I'm with wonkie.
What is not going to come out of all of this is any kind of extension of the ACA subsidies. Trump hates the ACA because people call it Obamacare and he hates hates hates hates hates Obama because that uppity black man made fun of him.
The "deal" is for a vote in the Senate. Which may or may not happen. There is no deal with the House. Trump has Johnson on some kind of weird short leash, which means there will not be a deal in the House.
And yes, what most people are going to take away from all of this is (a) the Dems caved and (b) my health insurance costs are going to be utterly unsustainable.
I'll also say that I find the "wailing and rending of garments on the left" line a bit offensive. This isn't some political inside baseball thing. People are going to have to choose between health insurance and other really essential things. They're gonna have to work another job, or sell their house, or not go to college. Stuff like that.
Or, just not have health insurance, cross their fingers, and hope they get lucky. Which some of them will not be, and some of those folks will die.
It's a fucking disaster.
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “Spelunking for fun and profit”
I haven't read a lot about this, the whole thing makes me sick to my stomach. I did read something along the lines that nous laid out, that maybe the 8 senators, all of whom were not running again, were providing cover for other senators. This to me is an even more damning criticism of the move.
The only silver lining I can see is that Trump will feel emboldened by this and the whole shit show could really explode in their faces. I suppose that the second is that Schumer might get voted out and they get someone who has a spine.
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wj - I understand what you are saying about not interrupting the enemy when they are in the midst of making a mistake. What I do not understand is why you think Kaine saying something like what wonkie outlines would in any way tip off the GOP that they were being set up.
And, assuming that they did recognize the mousetrap, I really don't see how the GOP could ever avoid that trap. Even if they see it sitting there, The Ancient Orange One Who Slumbers will not let them back down from tearing down a big shiny thing with Obama's name on it.
So where is the downside for Kaine blasting the GOP?
And I really don't believe that this is all Schumer calculus, and that the drama between caucuses has been scripted. If I had to pick anyone out of that group who was doing it for cover, I'd say it was Durbin giving cover to Gillibrand, but I don't think that was engineered by Schumer.
And I think Schumer should lose his leadership spot because he is such a soft target for people like Stewart, and even his attempts at sounding feisty look and sound squishy to anyone not starting to worry about retirement. The Dems need a scrappy wartime leader, not someone who talks about the sympathetic conversations that they have with their colleagues across the aisle while working out at the Senate gym.
Pull him from his leadership position and put someone else in front of those cameras who knows how to talk a good fight.
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And yes they would have to keep this quiet,
But not indefinitely. I think the time is soon to spell it all out.
I agree. I would say immediately after a) the House concurs to the Senate bill and b) Trump signs it.
Until then, the Republicans have, or might think they have, a chance to perhaps wriggle out of the trap. But once that happens? They're toast.
No doubt they will be endlessly inventive trying to recover. But their only real escape would be to restore the subsidies. Which their fanatics wouldn't countenance. And Trump would veto if it somehow got thru Congress.
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Jon Stewart on top form. Sigh.
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Suppose the thinking in the Democratic Caucus in the Senate was just what wonkie lays out above as what Senator Kaine should have said. Might there have been a reason not to say it out loud just now?"
wjca has a point. I saw a headline just today that said the Dems had mousetrapped the Rs. And they are mouse-trapped. Either there will be a vote on the ACA and they will have to put themselves on record or there won't be and they will be the bad guys that way too.
It is clear that certain Senators were chosen to fall on their swords.
It is entirely possible that Dems in the Senate thought, "Those sociopaths in the R party aren't going to be the first to blink, no matter what and we believe in public service and are aware of the suffering, so we have to blink. So let's strategize how to do it to lessen the blow back to us and save some people and put the Rs on the spot with the ACA."
And yes they would have to keep this quiet,
But not indefinitely. I think the time is soon to spell it all out.
"
I generally have little time for those who see conspiracies everywhere. But it occurs to me to wonder...
Suppose the thinking in the Democratic Caucus in the Senate was just what wonkie lays out above as what Senator Kaine should have said. Might there have been a reason not to say it out loud just now?
Start with the fairly safe assumption that the Republicans in Congress aren't the sharpest knives in the drawer. If the Democrats don't stand up and announce that they've neatly mousetrapped the Republicans here, the idea that it might be happening is unlikely to occur to them. Especially if there are loud complaints about "caving in" and "betrayal" from Democratic activists -- which we are hearing.
So the Republicans cheerfully pass the continuing resolution that just passed the Senate. And loudly declare victory (which Trump is incapable of not doing). Then, February rolls around. The government shuts down again. The differences being that this time SNAP keeps going (per this bill), critical Federal workers get paid, etc. Of course, health insurance premiums continue to skyrocket. And elections come ever closer, close enough that voters may even remember whose fault that is.
Did the Democrats saw all this coming? I don't know, and certainly don't expect an announcement. But, as politics goes, this ain't rocket science. I note that Schumer only had votes for cloture from Senators who are retiring or otherwise not subject to primary battles next year. Which avoids wasting resources on those. Spend the money on those districts that the Republicans gerrymandered into smaller (supposed) Republican majorities.
Hmmmm
On “When virtues become vices”
the cave-in was so infuriating and upsetting
What I find infuriating is less (much less) the cave in, and more the absolute refusal of the (R)'s to entertain an extension of the ACA subsidies.
Health care in this country is FUBAR beyond what I think folks living in any other developed country can fathom. The ACA, which was actually not original to Obama but was, in its fundamentals, a plan pioneered by Romney when he was governor of MA, was an attempt to get people insured. It is a half-assed program in many ways, because it tries to address the wishes of too many different constituencies, most definitely not to exclude private insurers. The requirements for what would be considered an acceptable plan were definitely ambitious for the US context, but would be mediocre pretty much anywhere else.
It's a weird convoluted complicated mess, but it's better than what we had. Believe it or not. And it cut the number of uninsured people in half.
We pay twice as much on average than any similar nation. We do not have twice the level of coverage, or twice the quality of outcomes. On the contrary.
People literally die here, literally go bankrupt here, as a result of the general shittiness of how we go about things.
Trump has an extreme personal animus toward Obama, so anything Obama did must be destroyed. Whether Obama actually did it or not, just the association of his name with the program is enough to make Trump determined to destroy it.
And Trump has nothing to replace it with. The stupid $2000 cash benefit he is talking about is (a) not gonna happen in anything like a form that will actually result in a $2000 check being cut to anybody, see also Bessent's comments about "no taxes on tips", and (b) would be laughably inadequate even if it were to materialize. $2000 is basically one ambulance ride and a couple of lab tests. For people in the private insurance market, it's something like one month of premiums.
We're extending the tax cuts, but ending the premium subsidies. And if anyone thinks the (R)'s are going to suddenly decide to extend them in December, I have a bridge I would like to sell you.
Yes to tax cuts, no to ACA subsidies, tells you everything you need to know about the state of this country right now.
Choices reveal character.
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russell, the cave-in was so infuriating and upsetting, because of all the inevitable results you list, that I was just relieved to see that Josh Marshall nonetheless saw some positives in what had happened:
But don’t tell me nothing has changed or that this is some cataclysmic disaster. It’s not. This accomplished a lot. It demonstrated that Democrats can go to the mat when the public is behind them and not pay a political price. It dramatically damaged Donald Trump. It cued up the central arguments of the 2026 campaign. It just didn’t go far enough. The ball was fumbled at the end. So we need to demand more.
On “Spelunking for fun and profit”
Note that Pritzker was speaking in front of a union crowd there (my compatriots in the IFT). This is what I've been saying for well over an election cycle - there are a whole lot of reachable voters who would respond to union-style messaging: "When we fight, we win." And in the face of a (temporary) loss, shift the message to one of building strength and solidarity for the longer campaign, and get out and organize.
And when I say "organize," I don't mean "fundraise." The idea is to mobilize as many people as you can - get them coming out and doing things, and meeting others who are doing the same. Fundraising doesn't build community. Direct messaging doesn't build community. Email lists don't build community. Shared struggle builds community.
Also, I don't know how many of the people who complain about the progressives woeful messaging have taken the time to watch one of the videos that AOC puts out on her various social media platforms. She's really good, especially at speaking to voters under 45. And if you look at the demographics of the Blue Wave, those were the voters that carried the show.
"
wonkie, I very much like your alternative script for Kaine. If only some of them were capable of talking like this - it's clearly necessary. It seems like Pritzker may be capable of it:
“Books are being banned. History is being erased. Republicans want to take billions away from public schools and pump it into private institutions. They want to punish teachers for telling the truth. They want to criminalize educators for supporting LGBTQ students. They want to turn classrooms into cultural war battlegrounds,” Pritzker began.
“I’m sorry to be vulgar, but Donald Trump and his cronies can f*** all the way off,” Pritzker said, causing a standing ovation from the audience at the Illinois Federation of Teachers gathered in Rosemont on October 19th.
On “When virtues become vices”
that was the plan put forward from the beginning.
Trump tax cuts were supposed to expire this year, too. At least, that was the plan from the beginning.
But, they did not. And that will add ~$4.6T to the national debt over the next 10 years.
Choices reveal character.
On “Spelunking for fun and profit”
Se what I mean? Mumbling curated professional word choices just doesn't work. Never has, never will. Dear God, you'd think professional politicians would know how to communicate. Now even the people the Dems were trying to protect will believe that the Dems screwed them for nothing. Honestly, Democrats. What was the point of your government shutdown? | Opinion
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I've had two criticisms of Dem pols for many, many years: 1. the lack of fight and 2. the mushy, wishy-washy "respectable" way of speaking that fails to communicate anything.
I think the Dems have improved on both fronts but there is a ways to go. For example, Kaine said why he voted to end the shutdown. He said something about how there didn't seem to be any other way forward mumble mumble blah blah.
What he meant and what he should have said is this: "The Republicans don't care about anything except power for power's sake and they are willing, indeed committed to, harming millions of Americans just so they can feel powerful. They are willing to spin out the shut down until federal workers go bankrupt, children are malnourished and millions lose their health insurance. Democrats aren't ruthlessly willing to sacrifice our neighbors for power. We decided to cut a deal to save as many people as possible. This shameful episode shows that Republicans genuinely do not care about people and only care about power."
But because of the mumble mumble blah blah we have headlines saying that the shutdown was for nothing.
On “When virtues become vices”
I think it would be helpful if the Democrats could figure out how to be moderate enough to allow more moderates to support them. These favorability ratings in the face of a fascist take over of government reflect how out of touch the Dems are at the other extreme. I keep looking for that party that isn't a sinking ship and don't see one.
As for the millions of Americans fucked by the ACA subsidies being cut, that was the plan put forward from the beginning. They were to last 5 years then phase out. That was never feasible but it was the plan bullied through Congress and part of the crowning achievement. Tough to have to live with it now. But both parties have not made them permanent for all these years so they both suck. As has the ACA structure from the beginning. It was an attempt to force employer insurance to go away and force full government controlled health care. It failed to accomplish that so its just a shitty half baked solution that is essential. Next Congress should just make the subsidies permanent and take the budget heat.
On “Spelunking for fun and profit”
Hey, look at the bright side. At least the Senators who were investigated for their possible involvement in J6 can sue the DOJ for up to $500K.
Silver linings, everyone.
On “When virtues become vices”
While I appreciate the analysis of the possible / likely tactical scenarios leading up to the "deal", the bottom line (to me) is that a lot of people are basically fucked.
The cost of private health insurance is probably going to double, or worse, for most folks that have it.
What I personally take away from all of this - and by "all of this" I mean the last decade if not longer - is that the (R) party and the conservative movement in general no longer serves the interests of the people of this country. What I see from them is cruelty and greed.
I understand that politics is the art of the possible, and that professional politicians need to do what they can in the particular circumstances they operate in.
And I'm glad that federal employees are gonna get paid.
But in the immortal words of Jerry Garcia, one way or another this darkness has got to give.
To say that people being outraged at the prospect of millions of their neighbors facing the choice of extreme financial distress or going without health insurance is "wailing and rending of garments" is dismissive and, frankly, kind of rude. People *should* be outraged.
To address GFTNC's cite of Marshall's piece, the thrust of what he was saying as far as I can tell is that yes, this totally sucks, but it's nice to see the (D)'s at least try to use the limited levers of power available to them.
And I don't disagree with that.
And like him, I'd like to see them do even more.
The (R)'s seriously deserve to be driven from the public space. They've become a dysfunctional, toxic cancer on the body public.
I suggest you moderate conservatives being the process of building an alternative. That, or go down with the sinking ship that is the (R) party.
It deserves to sink.
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without having any idea which approach is more correct.
Not going to be possible to tell soon, if ever, what the actual outcomes of the various possible scenarios would have been. Lots of speculation (including mine), mostly dressed up as certainty. The most we can hope for is some 20/20 hindsight on how what was done played out.
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I'm glad of these slightly more positive interpretations (inc Josh Marshall, who hilzoy seems to respect), without having any idea which approach is more correct.
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Well said, Marty.
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I think the "capitulation" was leadership's call. They had done as much damage politically to Trump and the GOP as they could get, and neither Trump nor Johnson were ever going to give up the subsidies. Johnson, in particular, almost automatically loses any tiny shred of credibility he has left if he does.
The Democrats picked people retiring or not having to run next year so minimal damage, leadership still gets to complain, but the pain eases.
I think it was as artfully played as possible. Kudos to Schumer and team.
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My point was, that extension wasn’t going to come out regardless.
You are most likely right.
The wailing and rending of garments is not going to be "on the left". It's going to be coming from all the people who are being immiserated by this catastrophe of an administration.
On “Weekend Music Thread #04 John Mackey”
I spend a lot of time in Spotify, average 4 hours a day, many days 12 hours I have a few 50 hour playlists but they aren't really curated, I have 20 or more 1 to 12 hour playlists carefully curated to the mood I wanted.
With that context, my Spotify listening has become a challenge as the algorithm is so trainable that almost any way I let Spotify pick songs it quickly just duplicates playlists I already have created with a different song here and there.
So, it trained me to be more imaginative in my seed requests. Song radio is my favorite way to listen, so I very carefully consider the seed song if I want a certain genre/era of music. It has become really fun to pick more obscure songs by lesser known artists to see how long it takes for that trail to lead back to my choices.
All to say that Spotify can be a fun pastime if you recognize its limitations and try to get around them. If you pick Willie Nelsons On the Road Again or Willis Alan Ramsey's Ballad of Spider John you eventually get to Jerry Jeff Walker but the road there is quite different.
On “When virtues become vices”
I think it is a mistake to treat the defection of the eight and the decision to end the shutdown as only a matter of cost/benefit analysis for the possible outcomes. My earlier quotation addresses that:
Please don’t be so “revolutionary” that you think electoral politics never matter and please don’t be so “moderate” that you think electoral politics are all that matter. – Abiola Agoro
As I have said before of union bargaining strategies, sometimes it's important to fight a losing battle in order to establish the narrative for the next battle and make your opponent think about the cost of that next victory. It's the reason why so many older brothers say that you have to hit the bully as hard as you can even if they are going to beat the crap out of you. It also sends an important message to allies and bystanders that the bully can be resisted and hurt.
So for me the questions "are we going to win?" and "are people going to get hurt if we resis?t" are not the only important questions. It's also important to ask how accepting that loss at this moment is going to affect the public narrative and the results of the next such confrontation. If holding out for another week gives the GOP another full week of having to deal with Blue Wave stories without significantly adding to the suffering of at-risk people, then I think you have to try to stretch it for one more week, and your caucus puts energy into helping take the sting out of the need with food drives and informational campaigns and partnerships with progressive faith groups. You still give in, but you give in on your terms, when you have a more opportune moment to control the narrative.
I think this is what Agoro is getting at when she says not to be so moderate that you think electoral politics are all that matter.
I'll also say here that I think Kaine, being the Senator for Virginia, was probably under a lot of pressure from a constituency that is heavy with fired federal workers who were asking him to find a way to get them their jobs back. I think his decision made sense, and while I don't think he should be let off the hook, I do think that any punishment he get from the caucus should be less than what the others receive.
The others should be out in the cold for any political favors for a long time, and I would not be sad if they were challenged in their next primaries.
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What is not going to come out of all of this is any kind of extension of the ACA subsidies.
My point was, that extension wasn't going to come out regardless. Those Republicans in Congress (on their own, let alone driven by Trump) simply are not going to extend those until the increased insurance costs generate howls from their own constituents. And they never were. There simply is no plausible scenario where that would happen before spring. Because, even if the Senate Republicans were somehow brought to agree to it, the House simply wouldn't concur.
Whether they allow a vote next month on those subsidies, as agreed, or not, it's fairly certain that an extension will fail to pass. And when it does, it will be defeated stand-alone -- no other spending distractions. (Of course, the Congressional Republicans might surprise us all. But I figure it will be months before they can bring themselves to act.)
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Wjca's point about whether Johnson will bring the House back or not is an interesting one. He's kind of between a rock and a hard place.
But overall I'm with wonkie.
What is not going to come out of all of this is any kind of extension of the ACA subsidies. Trump hates the ACA because people call it Obamacare and he hates hates hates hates hates Obama because that uppity black man made fun of him.
The "deal" is for a vote in the Senate. Which may or may not happen. There is no deal with the House. Trump has Johnson on some kind of weird short leash, which means there will not be a deal in the House.
And yes, what most people are going to take away from all of this is (a) the Dems caved and (b) my health insurance costs are going to be utterly unsustainable.
I'll also say that I find the "wailing and rending of garments on the left" line a bit offensive. This isn't some political inside baseball thing. People are going to have to choose between health insurance and other really essential things. They're gonna have to work another job, or sell their house, or not go to college. Stuff like that.
Or, just not have health insurance, cross their fingers, and hope they get lucky. Which some of them will not be, and some of those folks will die.
It's a fucking disaster.
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