I find it more likely that it will motivate flag officers to leave the military, to be replaced by officers who will have no problem when Trump/Vance declare martial law and order them to halt the 2028 federal elections.
I'mthinking that, to prove their bona fides loyalty, they would be told to do something sketchy outside the US -- no doubt they can find another war crime somewhere. Might start with the scenario you give, given how dumb they all are. But something more like the military equivalent of his cabinet meetings seems likely.
Whichever way it goes, they discover, when there is a big negative reaction, that Trump loyalty goes one way. Meaning they get thrown under the bus, too.
On the war crimes in the Caribbean, I note that Hegseth seems to have decided to throw the admiral, who he ordered to kill the survivors, under the bus. Perhaps this will motivate those folks in the military to not obey illegal orders. If not just because they are illegal, then to avoid being scapegoated for following those illegal orders.
Would ObWi would be better if there were many more threads, like LGM or BJ?
I realize that you weren't asking me. But IMHO anything over 1 per day is way excessive. There might be special cases. But in general there really aren't enough of us commenting here to make it necessary.
So I’m asking the UKians if the whole thing is a farce or reflects stubborn attitudes to anything on the left. Or both.
Or, just for completeness, stubborn attitudes of anyone on the left. Not saying that the left is particularly inflexible. Just that, given how far away we are, that's also a possibility.
The novel variations in winds around the pole are having consequences in lots of places. In California, we've had some unseasonably warm spells. But the serious issue is rain/snow. Lack of. Last winter we got enough to refill the reservoirs. But we're heading for no rain for at least the first half of December, and that's usually the month with the precipitation.
I guess Robinson has a national effort because it avoids the question of capitalism trying to harness geo-engineering, but it seems to me the latter is much more likely than the former.
For capitalism to harness geo-engineering, there would need to be some way, probably some fairly obvious way, to profit from it. Profit directly, not just from having a better world to live in generally. I'm not really seeing one -- probably lack of imagination on my part.
The actual alternative to a national effort would be a billionaire with an obsession, and a willingness to spend vast ssums of his own in pursuit of it. The example we have before us is SpaceX. Musk is obsessed with going to Mars, and was willing to personally fund a company to develop the technology so he could do that. Sure, it turned out he could sell launch services to NASA etc. But that was really just a happy unintended consequence as the technology developed.
Sonehow, when I read that the first time I took it to mean "people who buy the idiocy that the Heritage Foundation is peddling." That it meant something like the DAR didn't occur to me. And if it had, I've always thought the DAR was a bit daft (but mostly harmless). The reality is appalling.
I'm with cleek that "this sounds like every other fascist movement that has ever popped up " Which, considering who is loudly embracing the idea, is unsurprising. Scum.
the only way to have a unified state is to refine it into a homogenous, elemental society that is not vulnerable to any sort of othering
There is one (and, I would argue, only one) way to achieve a "society" which is not vulnerable to othering: become a hermit on a desert island. Because as soon as you have multiple people involved (which is what a society involves), othering is not only possible but relatively simple.
Doesn't mean it has to happen. But the risk is unavoidable. The most one can do is make othering socially unacceptable.
President Trump has urged the new Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, not to provoke China
The idea that Trump, Trump of all people, urging anyone not to be provocative? It simply boggles the mind. Next he'll be adminishing Americans to eat healthy, no doubt.
I had been aware that Witkoff got rich in real estate. What I had not known was how he got rich.
Basically, while Trump was making money by helping Russian oligarchs and mobsters launder money via New York apartment buildings, Witkoff was doing the same with commercial property there.
Suddenly, what we're seeing from the two of them becomes expliciable. Unsurprising even.
So what happens to nationalism if many more people are either moving from place to place or or at least relocating from where they were raised?
It depends...
If people are relocating across national boundaries, that could reduce nationalism, because they are not rooted anywhere. Say if they relocate because their job moves.
Or increase it, because they have moved on the basis of "I want to go to this particular place" (vs "I need to leave where I am.") See the immigrants to the US who embrace America to the point that they, or their children, volunteer for the US military.
On the other hand, there are those who relocate within a single country. It seems like they might embrace nationalism, simply because that is the level of group they still belong to. If you relocate from Alabama to Texas, you may not have strong ties to either. But you still have strong ties to the country overall.
There is doubtless a bit of racism in the mix. But I think by far the biggest part is simply that China is in a position to be an economic powerhouse rivaling the US. (And thus potentially a military peer.)
In contrast, Russia, at this point, is a second rate power. Or maybe third rate considering how they are faring against Ukraine. They've got nukes and (so far as we know) the technology to deliver them. But otherwise? They're a petrostate crossed with a kleptocracy. Even India is closer to being an economic peer than Russia.
The significant difference being that most members of Congress are fairly rabid when it comes to China. A lot of them may not care that much if Russia expands. But China is a whole different deal. If Trump makes a deal there, he may need to publish the Epstein Files as a distraction.
Those other debts weren’t being enforced by the Russian Mafia.
Doesn'tneed to involve the Russiab mafia. The Russian government has demonstrated its ability to conduct its own enforcement operations around the globe.
One possibility: Trump is trying to get the Europeans to truly step up. Trump successfully got member nations to pay their fair share to NATO
Since there is nothing in it for Trump personally, it's hard to credit him with caring about whether they step up. He may complain about it, but then he complains about anything and everything. Actually doing anything is rare.
As for "getting NATO members to pay their fair share", it's hard to see a valid complaint from the US on that. The one and only time that NATO has invoked its mutual defense clause was when the Europeans stepped up to support the US in Afghanistan. They stepped up to support us! Seems to me we've got no complaint.
The European members of NATO have not increased their defense spending in response to anything Trump has done. If you must credit anyone, "credit" Putin.
Perhaps someone here can explain something to me. Trump says Ukraine must accept the Russian-written "peace proposal or "risk losing US support. So, let's assume a counterfactual: Ukraine accepts the proposal. What good is US support supposed to do them, even assuming it lasts more than milliseconds beyong Russia moving it's troops forward?
It looks to me that the actual choice is between losing US support or losing US support. The only difference is between losing a bunch of territory at the same time or not.
I have tried to put down roots here, and I think I’ve done a good job, but given that it has been a conscious effort, I have to say that those roots aren’t deep, certainly not as deep as Japanese from here.
It's true that those who have moved tend to have shallower roots than those who have lived somewhere for a lifetime. And also, it's not surprising that some are better than others at developing new roots when they move. But I would point out that, while you feel your new roots are shallow, you are hardly someone who is perpetually moving. (I'd put the threshold for "perpetually moving"/rootless at relocating every couple of years or less.)
I acknowledge that my perspective is probably skewed by my personal experience. The US is called "a nation of immigrants" (suck eggs, Steven Miller!) for a reason. And California is a bit extreme, even for the US.
Growing up, I lived in a little farm town, just starting to evolve into a suburb. When my parents moved here, after WW II, the population was under 500. By the time I graduated high school, my graduating class was around 500. For all that there were a couple of families who had been here for a century, pretty much everybody in town was from somewhere else. Often, the kids in my classes had moved a couple of times already. Today, the town is up to nearly 50,000.
That sort of thing continues. I'm in the long time rooted category because, although I've lived in a half dozen different places over the years, they've all been within a hundred miles of here. But my family, my friends, my neighbors? All have moved or lived previously, far away. I've got a brother who, in his 20s and 30s, lived "in Europe" -- never settled anywhere for more than a couple of months, as far as I could tell. Definitely in the perpetually moving category.
“Maybe we are done putting down roots and will just keep moving.”
In reality, there have always been those who put down roots, and those who kept moving. As far as I can see, that is still true today.
There were also those who, from necessity, picked up and moved, sometimes a very long way, before stopping and putting down new roots. (I am put in mind of a story I read long ago about a guy who moved from Europe, but having arrived in New York City, never went west of Ocean Parkway.)
I suppose you could make a case that, at least in the US since the middle of the last century, it became more common for entire families to pull up stakes and relocate multiple times. They put down roots serially though; they weren't really moving constantly.
The one thing I think has changed is that those who just keep moving are now able to form lasting connections online. Before, they were largely isolated. Being able to make lasting connections allows them to form communities. Just communities not based on geography. That makes them more visible.
I hope the Wall Street Journal editorial is right about American voters, but I fear it is not. Surely if American voters hated dishonour as much as all that, there would not be a second Trump presidency
It all depends on what American voters perceive as dishonor. Perhaps surprisingly, they seem more likely to take that view of foreign policy screwups than they do of dishonorable behavior on the domestic (or personal!) front.
Yeah. I get warnings about the site being potentially unsafe. But I cheerfully downloaded the files anyway. Now I just need to get the software to open them.
I am amazed by the number of people I have encountered over the last few months who said variations of “but Trump will eventially get/is getting impatient with Putin, so it looks like things are going to change”.
It's pretty human to expect things that you really, really want to see happen will indeed happen . And it's also all to easy to assume that others will do what you would expect anybody to do. Even when you know, if you stop and think about it, that the person isn't even remotely rational, let alone sensible.
So, we'd like to see Trump cease being Putin's patsy when it comes to Ukraine. And, given how Putin is behaving, any normal person would long since have gotten exasperated. So, easy to think any little glimmer in that direction is the beginning of a real change. No matter how many times it proves not to be.
It must be incredibly frustrating for Dmitriev. He keeps putting out ever more outrageous demands, in the hopes that Witkoff will say No, so he can blame the US for negotiations failing. But Witkoff keeps giving him everything he asks and more. Over and over. The draft plan differs from Russia's maximal demands only in giving Russia even more.
About all that's left is Russia demanding massive reparations from Ukraine. Watching this space....
*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.
On “It’s Your Party, you can cry if…”
I'mthinking that, to prove their
bona fidesloyalty, they would be told to do something sketchy outside the US -- no doubt they can find another war crime somewhere. Might start with the scenario you give, given how dumb they all are. But something more like the military equivalent of his cabinet meetings seems likely.Whichever way it goes, they discover, when there is a big negative reaction, that Trump loyalty goes one way. Meaning they get thrown under the bus, too.
"
On the war crimes in the Caribbean, I note that Hegseth seems to have decided to throw the admiral, who he ordered to kill the survivors, under the bus. Perhaps this will motivate those folks in the military to not obey illegal orders. If not just because they are illegal, then to avoid being scapegoated for following those illegal orders.
On “Open Thread”
Would ObWi would be better if there were many more threads, like LGM or BJ?
I realize that you weren't asking me. But IMHO anything over 1 per day is way excessive. There might be special cases. But in general there really aren't enough of us commenting here to make it necessary.
On “It’s Your Party, you can cry if…”
So I’m asking the UKians if the whole thing is a farce or reflects stubborn attitudes to anything on the left. Or both.
Or, just for completeness, stubborn attitudes of anyone on the left. Not saying that the left is particularly inflexible. Just that, given how far away we are, that's also a possibility.
On “Open Thread”
The novel variations in winds around the pole are having consequences in lots of places. In California, we've had some unseasonably warm spells. But the serious issue is rain/snow. Lack of. Last winter we got enough to refill the reservoirs. But we're heading for no rain for at least the first half of December, and that's usually the month with the precipitation.
On “Am I missing something?”
To the degree that the Jewish community was self-governing during Roman occupation, the religious institutions *were* the government.
The Christian nationalists would be ecstatic to implement that model. Even if they reject the bits about caring for the poor.
"
Simply loving the image of Imperial Rome as an anarchist collective!
On “The surprising philosophy behind Palantir”
For capitalism to harness geo-engineering, there would need to be some way, probably some fairly obvious way, to profit from it. Profit directly, not just from having a better world to live in generally. I'm not really seeing one -- probably lack of imagination on my part.
The actual alternative to a national effort would be a billionaire with an obsession, and a willingness to spend vast ssums of his own in pursuit of it. The example we have before us is SpaceX. Musk is obsessed with going to Mars, and was willing to personally fund a company to develop the technology so he could do that. Sure, it turned out he could sell launch services to NASA etc. But that was really just a happy unintended consequence as the technology developed.
"
“Heritage Americans”
Sonehow, when I read that the first time I took it to mean "people who buy the idiocy that the Heritage Foundation is peddling." That it meant something like the DAR didn't occur to me. And if it had, I've always thought the DAR was a bit daft (but mostly harmless). The reality is appalling.
I'm with cleek that "this sounds like every other fascist movement that has ever popped up " Which, considering who is loudly embracing the idea, is unsurprising. Scum.
"
the only way to have a unified state is to refine it into a homogenous, elemental society that is not vulnerable to any sort of othering
There is one (and, I would argue, only one) way to achieve a "society" which is not vulnerable to othering: become a hermit on a desert island. Because as soon as you have multiple people involved (which is what a society involves), othering is not only possible but relatively simple.
Doesn't mean it has to happen. But the risk is unavoidable. The most one can do is make othering socially unacceptable.
On “An openish thread featuring the comedy stylings of Steve Witkoff”
President Trump has urged the new Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, not to provoke China
The idea that Trump, Trump of all people, urging anyone not to be provocative? It simply boggles the mind. Next he'll be adminishing Americans to eat healthy, no doubt.
"
I had been aware that Witkoff got rich in real estate. What I had not known was how he got rich.
Basically, while Trump was making money by helping Russian oligarchs and mobsters launder money via New York apartment buildings, Witkoff was doing the same with commercial property there.
Suddenly, what we're seeing from the two of them becomes expliciable. Unsurprising even.
"
GftNC, I thought sure you were channelling The Onion. Because it just seemed too over the top. But now it just seems creepy. And stomach turning.
Sorry to have doubted you.
On “Shabana burns the cakes”
So what happens to nationalism if many more people are either moving from place to place or or at least relocating from where they were raised?
It depends...
If people are relocating across national boundaries, that could reduce nationalism, because they are not rooted anywhere. Say if they relocate because their job moves.
Or increase it, because they have moved on the basis of "I want to go to this particular place" (vs "I need to leave where I am.") See the immigrants to the US who embrace America to the point that they, or their children, volunteer for the US military.
On the other hand, there are those who relocate within a single country. It seems like they might embrace nationalism, simply because that is the level of group they still belong to. If you relocate from Alabama to Texas, you may not have strong ties to either. But you still have strong ties to the country overall.
On “An openish thread featuring the comedy stylings of Steve Witkoff”
There is doubtless a bit of racism in the mix. But I think by far the biggest part is simply that China is in a position to be an economic powerhouse rivaling the US. (And thus potentially a military peer.)
In contrast, Russia, at this point, is a second rate power. Or maybe third rate considering how they are faring against Ukraine. They've got nukes and (so far as we know) the technology to deliver them. But otherwise? They're a petrostate crossed with a kleptocracy. Even India is closer to being an economic peer than Russia.
"
The Putin playbook is clearly an inspiration…
The significant difference being that most members of Congress are fairly rabid when it comes to China. A lot of them may not care that much if Russia expands. But China is a whole different deal. If Trump makes a deal there, he may need to publish the Epstein Files as a distraction.
"
Those other debts weren’t being enforced by the Russian Mafia.
Doesn'tneed to involve the Russiab mafia. The Russian government has demonstrated its ability to conduct its own enforcement operations around the globe.
"
One possibility: Trump is trying to get the Europeans to truly step up. Trump successfully got member nations to pay their fair share to NATO
Since there is nothing in it for Trump personally, it's hard to credit him with caring about whether they step up. He may complain about it, but then he complains about anything and everything. Actually doing anything is rare.
As for "getting NATO members to pay their fair share", it's hard to see a valid complaint from the US on that. The one and only time that NATO has invoked its mutual defense clause was when the Europeans stepped up to support the US in Afghanistan. They stepped up to support us! Seems to me we've got no complaint.
The European members of NATO have not increased their defense spending in response to anything Trump has done. If you must credit anyone, "credit" Putin.
"
Perhaps someone here can explain something to me. Trump says Ukraine must accept the Russian-written "peace proposal or "risk losing US support. So, let's assume a counterfactual: Ukraine accepts the proposal. What good is US support supposed to do them, even assuming it lasts more than milliseconds beyong Russia moving it's troops forward?
It looks to me that the actual choice is between losing US support or losing US support. The only difference is between losing a bunch of territory at the same time or not.
On “Shabana burns the cakes”
I have tried to put down roots here, and I think I’ve done a good job, but given that it has been a conscious effort, I have to say that those roots aren’t deep, certainly not as deep as Japanese from here.
It's true that those who have moved tend to have shallower roots than those who have lived somewhere for a lifetime. And also, it's not surprising that some are better than others at developing new roots when they move. But I would point out that, while you feel your new roots are shallow, you are hardly someone who is perpetually moving. (I'd put the threshold for "perpetually moving"/rootless at relocating every couple of years or less.)
I acknowledge that my perspective is probably skewed by my personal experience. The US is called "a nation of immigrants" (suck eggs, Steven Miller!) for a reason. And California is a bit extreme, even for the US.
Growing up, I lived in a little farm town, just starting to evolve into a suburb. When my parents moved here, after WW II, the population was under 500. By the time I graduated high school, my graduating class was around 500. For all that there were a couple of families who had been here for a century, pretty much everybody in town was from somewhere else. Often, the kids in my classes had moved a couple of times already. Today, the town is up to nearly 50,000.
That sort of thing continues. I'm in the long time rooted category because, although I've lived in a half dozen different places over the years, they've all been within a hundred miles of here. But my family, my friends, my neighbors? All have moved or lived previously, far away. I've got a brother who, in his 20s and 30s, lived "in Europe" -- never settled anywhere for more than a couple of months, as far as I could tell. Definitely in the perpetually moving category.
"
“Maybe we are done putting down roots and will just keep moving.”
In reality, there have always been those who put down roots, and those who kept moving. As far as I can see, that is still true today.
There were also those who, from necessity, picked up and moved, sometimes a very long way, before stopping and putting down new roots. (I am put in mind of a story I read long ago about a guy who moved from Europe, but having arrived in New York City, never went west of Ocean Parkway.)
I suppose you could make a case that, at least in the US since the middle of the last century, it became more common for entire families to pull up stakes and relocate multiple times. They put down roots serially though; they weren't really moving constantly.
The one thing I think has changed is that those who just keep moving are now able to form lasting connections online. Before, they were largely isolated. Being able to make lasting connections allows them to form communities. Just communities not based on geography. That makes them more visible.
I suppose
On “An openish thread featuring the comedy stylings of Steve Witkoff”
I hope the Wall Street Journal editorial is right about American voters, but I fear it is not. Surely if American voters hated dishonour as much as all that, there would not be a second Trump presidency
It all depends on what American voters perceive as dishonor. Perhaps surprisingly, they seem more likely to take that view of foreign policy screwups than they do of dishonorable behavior on the domestic (or personal!) front.
"
Yeah. I get warnings about the site being potentially unsafe. But I cheerfully downloaded the files anyway. Now I just need to get the software to open them.
"
I am amazed by the number of people I have encountered over the last few months who said variations of “but Trump will eventially get/is getting impatient with Putin, so it looks like things are going to change”.
It's pretty human to expect things that you really, really want to see happen will indeed happen . And it's also all to easy to assume that others will do what you would expect anybody to do. Even when you know, if you stop and think about it, that the person isn't even remotely rational, let alone sensible.
So, we'd like to see Trump cease being Putin's patsy when it comes to Ukraine. And, given how Putin is behaving, any normal person would long since have gotten exasperated. So, easy to think any little glimmer in that direction is the beginning of a real change. No matter how many times it proves not to be.
"
It must be incredibly frustrating for Dmitriev. He keeps putting out ever more outrageous demands, in the hopes that Witkoff will say No, so he can blame the US for negotiations failing. But Witkoff keeps giving him everything he asks and more. Over and over. The draft plan differs from Russia's maximal demands only in giving Russia even more.
About all that's left is Russia demanding mas
sivereparations from Ukraine. Watching this space....*Comment archive for non-registered commenters assembled by email address as provided.